The lawyers continue to say the stated plans are never going to become law.
Even if that is true, having to worry ANNUALLY that the government is going to screw us over is not worth the stress. Especially because it probably isnāt unconstitutional to reject a citizenship application if you have only spent 7 days a year in PT for 5 years.
Since citizenship without a heavy stay requirement was our goal, I just begged for a refund of our Cultural Heritage donation. Let me out of here!
I still believe there are enough people in Portugal who understand that they need more citizens who pay high taxes and hire people to work and create jobs. I donāt know exactly what is driving this witch-hunt by costa but I think sense will prevail in the end.
Longshot, but maybe in the next election (sometime before October 2026) the existing government wonāt have fixed the problem (this law fails basic economics) and the new government will restore some aspect of the Golden Visa or at least fix renewals to existing rules to preserve Portugalās reputation as a place where investors can come and rules wonāt be changed mid-game.
I am fully aligned with the analysis and from my perspective the best solution today is to start grouping ourselves and prepare a position paper to the PT parliament to explain our position and highlight that thousands of lawsuits will be filled in case the current law was approved as it is. Let me know your thoughts
And the damage to the environment caused by three separate transoceanic flights to attend SEF appointments they cancelled on a dayās notice.
Iām not sure the timing will work like that. After five years you can apply for citizenship but you still have to have a valid visa until it is acted on, and that may require another renewal, assuming the GV residency continues to count towards the five years.
Plus, I have some doubt about whether anyone will lease to an American without a valid visa for the lease term, and whether it will still work for moving household furniture.
Just thinking aloud here, if worst-case scenarios transpireā¦ is there a basis for getting our embassies involved? For example, perhaps US embassy officials in Lisbon could be persuaded to make representations on behalf of US citizens who would be impacted by the proposals. No idea if this is feasible, or if it would help at all. (The problem we have as a group is that, by definition, we have no political representation in Portugal.)
Wondering if change.org petition could be the easiest first step (we all sign and we get our lawyers and whoever to signā¦ and then we share with media etc.) ā there dont seem to be many PT ones but there are EUs. See an example here: URL
I am not sure about embassies but some government agencies that care about these, would of course be nice.
I would support a position paper or a change.org type of position that puts forward the Golden Visa holders and applicants side. It seems the largest most vocal advocate is Mercan who is calling the government (Prime Minister and Council of Ministers) out for their blatant lies about lack of employment benefits for their investment program. Those that bought property need the same type of voice.
I think a change.org petition would be pretty toothless, unfortunately. We need our law firms to be speaking to the government.
Which mine has done! I was just informed that they, and the museum we donated to as part of our GV application, were assured by the Ministry of Culture that the Cultural Heritage āoption would continue to be available.ā
So maybe there is still hope, and if they will make an exception for one GV pathway, they will likely include others. Maybe all non-real estate pathways will find new homes under other visas (preferably with existing GV stay requirementsā¦)
Speaking to anybody who hasnāt invested yet and is still deciding whether to push forward - and speaking as somebody who has been in this position - DONāT.
While we can cling to optimistic ideas about what the future might look like, when it comes to making such a huge financial decision, we have to take a cold hard look at how things really are now. Not how we would like them to be.
And the reality of the current moment is this:
- The EU has turned against residency and citizenship by investment programs.
- Portuguese public opinion has turned against foreigners and foreign investors who they perceive (fairly or not) to be driving property prices up.
- And now, the Portuguese government itself has turned against the golden visa. Hard.
Taking a global perspective, these trends align with increasing de-globalization, the reemergence of great power conflict, and the hardening of borders and geopolitical coalitions. We are heading into a new phase of world history that will look very different from the last 30 years.
Something seldom mentioned in these forums but is a huge factor Iām sure in how the government looks at the Portuguese GV is that the vast majority of GVs granted have gone to Chinese nationals. When the Irish GV was canceled last month with immediate effect, this fact was openly stated as a major reason.
We may want to hang on to the idea that things will go back to how things were and that norms traditionally respected will be respected. But all signs point in a very different direction.
The property developers and affiliated legal representatives may assure us that such drastic changes cannot be made so abruptly, but take that advice with grain of salt. Their incentive is to continue closing their last few GV deals. Their interest may not be fully aligned with your interest.
Even if it is possible to squeeze an application through now, the fact is that future renewals will be difficult - if not impossible - and the possibility of transitioning to citizenship after a few years without having spent time physically in Portugal or paid taxes is far from guaranteed - maybe even unlikely at the rate things are going.
So keep your eyes open and be alert. If you have a lot of money to spend, and the Portuguese GV is just one of many bets you are making to secure your future, then go ahead and roll the dice. But if this is a substantial chunk of your and your familyās lifeās savings, make sure you are making a decision with a clear perspective on where we are now and where we are going - not hanging on to how things were these last few years.
Agreed. When I applied in 2021 I thought there was maybe a 70% chance I would see the whole process through to citizenship. And the cash and opportunity costs seemed worthwhile on that basis. I now think that probability has fallen to maybe 30%, and Iāve had biometrics. Applying now, maybe 10%. I wouldnāt roll the dice today. But each to their own.
Thereās a reason I went with an open ended fund. Feeling pretty good about it now. Would definitely recommend it to anyone trying to squeak in
Yes, but are there liquidity restraints? Iād imagine so.
What do you mean?
I bought IMGA Acoes shares. To my knowledge, itās like any other publicly traded fund. I could sell everything tomorrow if I wanted, I can look up the price at any time.
Doing ok lately! 0P0001M3U0 | Imga AƧƵes Portugal R - Fundo De Investimento Aberto De AƧƵes Chart - Investing.com
These funds hold about 20-30 positions in large traded Portuguese stocks (like banks, electricity companies, etc). Basically theyāre PSI20 trackers. So for them to redeem a 300k euro investor just means selling EUR 10k in each of a few companies. No big deal. (I guess if all of us decided this PGV thing was toast all on the same day, that might be a big trading day for themā¦)
On the point of Chineseā¦
If really they saw that as a problem, they could have just restricted applications from China. Either officially, or unofficially like they have actually done this with Russians since February last year.
As a fresh example from elsewhere, I have just gone through a CBI in a country which explicitly excludes certain nationals from their CBI program. No big deal.
So no, the āChineseā might be their excuse, but not their reason.
Itās an open end fund, so you arenāt selling it you are redeeming it. And they can suspend redemptions if 10% want to redeem in a five day period, or other unusual circumstances.
So it is important to know what they are investing in and whether they have enough liquidity. This one looks fairly liquid. But I wondered about funds that were targeted for ARI.
The other reason is that the Portuguese economy today is quite different from the 2008-2012 years, when the GV was introduced.
Back then, capital was in short supply during the global recession and credit crunch. They were willing to offer a residency permit in exchange for foreign capital infusion in any part of their economy.
After the 2010s economic recovery and two years of Covid-19 stimulus by most governments, the world is flush with cash and inflation is running wild. Not only has the value of foreign capital infusion fallen, it is specifically hated/scapegoated for housing inflation.
Couple that with EU pressure, the program being dominated by Russia/China (which are deemed less desirable immigration), accusations of shady origins of GV funds by a small number of bad actors, and itās not hard to see why nearly every political entity (government, citizens, EU) is eager to get rid of GV.
What they want now are jobs, especially jobs outside of real estate. Portuguese people are emigrating for jobs and the unaffordable cost of living. For example, the PM explicitly said that they want to convert GVs to D2 entrepreneurship visas, with the associated requirements for starting/maintaining a business that hires Portuguese.