Shocker. Most lawyers arenāt that helpful if you ask them to go off script. There are a handful of lawyers who are very good and do go above and beyond, but that seems to be the exception rather than the rule.
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All I can say GB and Jim is to send a text to the WhatsApp group for PAIIR, email the PT embassy in your home country and email your embassy in PT. You can also leave message for the Assembly of the Republic on their web-site. I saw it, but have not followed through because I am trying to get various lawyers and law firms to respond.
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How do we find this group?
A link was included on this thread a couple of weeks ago, but perhaps @Garbonzo Bean or @ChrisJ can share the link with you. I know Dr. Madalena Monteiro, a lawyer and a user on Nomadgate is a leader in the PAIIR movement.
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I agree itās a square peg being forced into a round hole.
I disagree that itās going to kill everything, nor do I think there is malicious intent.
Right here:
Clearly the listed agencies arenāt appropriate to evaluate the grandfathered applications. Therefore, it will be handled by āothersā. Those āothersā arenāt defined yet, no. I suspect it is unreasonable to define who those āothersā are right now, because who WOULD they be? SEF is being disbanded. The successor is still being set up. So who āothersā is, is likely to be something that will be promulgated in the regulations that will have to be developed in accompaniment with this. And likely just handled ad-hoc.
Costa (or more likely some junior minister whoās been tasked with making this go away) is trying to jam a square peg into a round hole and no, it doesnāt fit well. Someone will have to come along with a router and round off the edges later. Thatās what accompanying regulations are for.
Oh, is it going to leave people in limbo for a while, while all this is sorted out? Sure thing. No one cares about that - this is Portugal after all, your hurry is not their problem.
To be clear - do I think anyone should be jamming in an application now? Only if you have infinite patience.
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For what itās worth, Iām not really concerned about renewals at all.
2 - The provisions of the preceding paragraph are without prejudice to the possibility of renewal
of residence permits for investment activity when these permits have been granted under the
legal regime applicable up to the date on which this law comes into force.
5 - In the cases foreseen in the previous numbers, the renewal determines the conversion of the
residence permit into a residence permit for entrepreneurial immigrants under the terms of no.
4 of article 89 of Law no. 23/2007, of 4th July, in its current wording,
In other words, it renews on the terms and conditions that it was granted under in the first place. Ok itās being called a D2 now. The other way to interpret this is āitās a D2 - the requirements for which have already been metā. All you have to do is continue to meet the legal requirements applicable at the time of granting of the original permit - said original permit being the ARI. I think the issues here with respect to 44(5) are an artifact of translation, and that the words as translated miss the idiomatic intent.
Thought exercise - imagine that someone goes and changes article 89 and says oh now you have to hire 200 people in your enterprise or something. Does that mean that every existing D2 holder has to go hire 200 people? No. They met the terms and conditions at the time. That the rule changed doesnāt affect them. Same principle.
Article 78 governs the renewal of permits. It doesnāt say anything about any of this. It just states reasons for not renewing.
Here is what I think.
The issuance of residence permits is tied to specific bits of law. Namely, āwe issue a residence permit based on article 89ā. There has to be a specific enabler. Thereās probably over in the schengen framework a specific tie between a permit and a specific article of legislation.
The government wants to get rid of article 90. Why doesnāt matter, it needs to be gone. Ok. Well, if they get rid of article 90, then where oh where is the specific enabling legislation for the permit that is being issued? Oh, there isnāt any, they nuked article 90. All right, we are now saying this new permit weāre issuing is tied to article 89. The computers and bureaucrats are happy.
Thatās it. No ill intent, no malice, just a bow to the mechanics that keep the world going round.
I think that if there were a real problem with this, there are a hundred lawyers who would be being deprived of a lot of renewal and other related fees (how many people use their immigration firms to also handle their taxes, their citizenship application, their real estate purchase, their whatever, because itās the relationship they have alreadyā¦ I know I do) who would all be up in arms about it, and theyāre not, and I think they arenāt because theyāre reading this as native speakers, they understand what the wording really means, and they think itās fine.
Feel free to disagree of course. Iām really actually afraid to even write this because Iām going to get flamed for being a complacent idiot. But thatās how I feel about it. Iām just not that concerned. Iām more concerned that the law is enshrining that 7-days-in-first year as law, and my wife hasnāt been able to be over for the 7 days since her permit was issued last year, and weāre going to have to fly over in a last minute panic in the middle of high season to get here there for 7 days, which will be at best super inconvenient, when we really intended to head over in the fall for a month.
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Hi Jeff,
There is reason to believe there is malicious intent. Costa has said publicly (paraphrasing) that the Golden Visa program should go away because no one deserves special attention. Very populist, but also @cj807 quoted Costaās March 30 conference in which Costa said, "
In relation to the visas already granted and their renewal, what we have decided, in order to give security to all those who hold them, is that, their residence permit, at the moment of renewal, and if they meet the criteria that are currently foreseen for their renewal, will be converted into a normal residence permit, just like any other foreigner residing in our country.
In relation to the processes that are pending examination, they will continue to be processed in accordance with the general law, which in the meantime is new and which foresees the granting of a residence permit for business investment purposes or for cultural or scientific research activities.
And, therefore, the processes that are pending today will be examined in accordance with the general law and with the certification by AICEP, or by Banco de Fomento, or by IAPMEI, or by the National Innovation Agency, or by the Ministry of Culture, of their economic, scientific, or cultural added value.
So, we end up with a general regime and everyone will be treated according to the general law and without
jeopardizing legal security.ā
There is no accommodation for ARI investors in the general law, that is why they created a special Articles which are being revoked per new Article 43 (just read that article) as well as the Article 65 in the Regulatory Decree of 84/2007 of 5 November which was last amended in 2021/2022. Those specifically have the ARI program enshrined in law as Articles outside the general law.
How you think those agencies are going to approve your real estate is beyond me, because the laws that allow agencies to approve ARI investments because Article 3 pararaph (1)(d) is repealed before these agencies even begin the process of looking at or renewing.
As I posted, it took them 6 years to get the ARI program up and running from the time it was put in law to the acceptance of the first applicants. 23/2007 of 4 July Law mentions ARI for the first time. It was not until multiple ādispatchesā from various agencies to the Government and the Presidency until the ARI law got changed enough that we see amendments in 2012-12015 in the 23/2007 of 4 July law and the 84/2007 Regulatory Degree that enshrine the ARI scheme in law and decree and address how the government can better sell them to get foreign investment that is so ābadly neededā after the Euro crisis early in the last decade.
Are willing to wait 6 years for them to get this straightened out, because all the laws, decrees and manuals they use will be illegal because they all reference ARI.
As to your point on (f) why would they not include AAMMP, the successor to SEF, which was announced by the government more than a week or ahead of the draft. Off that they would omit the one agency they know will still be able to do approvals that have been done to date in such a detailed list. Oh, yeah right, because those are the Entrepreneurial Immigrant Temporary Resident Permit approval agencies that Costa mentions in his press conference on March 30.
To answer you further point, I would rather advocate for complete inclusion in the law of the changes the Portuguese Government has every right to make, but infringing our rights of protection of confidence in trust of the actions of a government is not something they have a right to do.
And yes, before anyone chimes in we have no rights there are at least two articles in the Constitution of the Republic that states foreigners are treated equally under the law of Portugal, they must comply with the UN charter for human rights and any EU Laws, which a number of legal professionals analysis shows we have standing in Portugal and the EU.
To that end, you can play the wait and see law while your investment is tied up and with the press this will create drops in value or is locked up because you have not technically been kicked out of the ARI program, or you can advocate for changes which would amend the proposed laws orā¦
The Simple Solution to the questions presented by the current drafts and uncertainty of when things will get straightened out if at all not to mention what could go wildly wrong if these go to committees is to push for the scraping of Article 43, 44 and 45 and have a new Article 43 that states,
āNo new applications for a residence permit for investment activity
as provided for in article 90-A of Law 23/2007, of 4th July, except investment activity or support
to artistic production, recovery or maintenance of national cultural heritage, will be permitted as
from the date on which this law comes into force.ā
@cj807 is the author of the underlying principle and a group of us edited it to include the Article 46 language which the government seems so intent on discriminatorily keeping. How do you get rid of ARI/Golden Visas but keep one you like (and need)? Was new Article 46 intentional, you better believe it was, because they spefically created an Article 46 so I would imagine the others are intentionally drafted too!
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I really hope PAIIR et al are lobbying to rephrase this as 14 days if issued two year permits, because it makes no sense for the stay requirements to be completely divorced from the residency permit durations.
My first year is almost up so I have basically no chance of fulfilling the nonsensical version if they push ahead with it.
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Jeff, You entitled to your opinion and state of mind and I hope your reading is correct. The more a group of us researched how the laws, decrees, dispatches and SEF ARI Procedure Manual work together - this change is going to be a cluster of epic proportions and if the right people are in place they can screw ARI investors easily either during application or at renewal because the list of departments involved in that.
Fix it now and we avoid the potential or wait and hope while preparing for the time and expense to sue to either get your way or get kicked out of the program so you can hopefully get your money out of your investment. But by then, no body will want to invest in Portugal, because what they do will get picked up by news.
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Joel, Firstly thanks for your detailed analysis. Second, donāt worry about feedback that you may be over reacting. Better safe than sorry.
The way I see it there are a number of people at different stages of the approval process here. And depending on their stage, there may be different levels of apprehension. Also, there are folks that just tend to worry less and leave things to fate. All that to say, keep posting your thoughts as it is helpful to at least a section of the audience here, and those that are not worried can keep calm and carry on anywayā¦
The latest language is pretty safe for MOST people, except for those that have NOT gotten their first residence card. The renewals seem to be grandfathered, and there is no retroactivity to dates prior to effective date of law.
However, the ones that invested (especially those of us did so years ago) and are still waiting for their first residence card in various stages COULD have their entire applications reevaluated under different rules than were laid out to solicit the investment in the first place. And that is of some concern. Now it is true that the law is not final, and there may or may not intent to do so, but it may still impact us as the bureaucracy implements THEIR understanding of the law irrespective of intent.
So now is the time to try and clarify the law itself to reflect ACTUAL no retroactive change and I would welcome any input on any kind of lobbying that I can help with the make sure the law is written and clarified appropriately before it becomes law of the land.
The ask would be - given the analysis that there is some risk here with current wording, how do we do something about it - who can we write to, or lobby via.
I have written to the US ambassador in Lisbon and the Portugal ambassador in DC via email - no response or acknowledgement received to either, but I put my concerns on the record. That was before this draft of the law clarified at least some aspects to not change retroactively. I have also written to my fund manager who I am sure has some skin in the game here as well.
Any other suggestions on what to do to lobby to clarify the law as written I am open toā¦
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Below is a link to the group I think Joel is referring to. It was start by PAIIR at the end of March; the main objective at first was to generate interest in the petition that was circulated a while back. To be honest, Iām not sure PAIIR is really involved in the group any more, so itās largely become a general chat forum, with relatively little going on in recent days.
Just received an email from a promoter that the Governmentās final wording for the More Housing Bill is out. No external links provided to the bill wording in the email from the promoter ther than re-assurances of non-retroactivity.
Hopefully itās not long before something is more widely available for analysis.
Do you mean a new draft? As opposed to the one published three weeks ago and posted here ?
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The creation of this financial research by DBRS Morningstar, a worldwide rating agency for RBMS (Mortgage- Backed Securities) investments and the end of the Golden Visa Scheme takes the feet out from under the Government of Prime Minister Costa and actually pins the reason on the same Government because they did not have a housing plan to build more housing units.
In conclusion as the Portugal News quoted, "The end of the concession of new golden visas concludes a scheme that was developed at a time of financial difficulties for the country. This decision should have a limited impact in the residential property market since it was not a major driver transaction-wise, whether measured in value or in volume terms for the country as a whole. It may, however, have had a more localized
impact particularly in the capital and Algarve, a much-sought-after tourism destination. Other factors such as the lack of new housing supply, a renewed foreign interest and the economic recovery since the lows of the early 2010s, seem to be more relevant in explaining the recent trend of property prices in the country."
Nothing we did not already know, but something we can share by a reputable research organization, we can share to continue to support our positions and create a paper trail for the time we have to file law suits.
The full document is here:
April 2023 DBRS Morningstar Research on Portugal Property Market.pdf (173.6 KB)
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German news in English talking about the housing crisis in Portugal, and specifically Lisbon. No mention that the Golden Visa applicants are responsible for everything.
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To add a bit more drama into the mix - Costaās Government might Collapse.
There seems to be a lot of political uncertainty in Portugal, stemming from the TAP Scandal. Although the probability of the Costa government collapsing are slim, it cannot be ruled out entirely.
TLDR: In a rare instance of disagreement between the President and Prime Minister, the President has requested the dismissal of a government minister, a request the Prime Minister has refused to comply with.
The President has two options if he wants to remove the controversial minister: forcing the resignation of the entire government or dissolving the Parliament. In the case of the governmentās collapse, existing laws related to the Golden Visa program, will remain in effect until a new government is formed and then introduces, debates and passes new legislation, which would at least take another three to five months or longer if Parliament is dissolved.
It is important to note that this analysis is speculative and, as of now, there have been no concrete developments in this situation. The potential impact on the Golden Visa and the more housing bill remains unknown.
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President Marcelo appeared on TV last night to say he wouldnāt be doing anything
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Yes, itās too early to tell.
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You missed this part of the article. "The article stresses that the Portuguese President chose not to call elections because āa new electoral campaign, when only a year and three months have passed since the previous one, would be a factor of instability in addition to the situation of economic uncertainty, which was driven by the war in Ukraine and its falloutā. On the other hand, writes the journalist Tereixa Constenla, the Portuguese President āfears that the only possibility of there being a change in Government with a Prime Minister from the Social-Democratic Party implies the support of the extreme right, of the Chega partyā and that is something that Marcelo ādoes not want to facilitateā.
In other news articles on CNN Portugal and RTP, the President of the Republic, states he will not dissolve parliament in favor of stability, but be he will be even more vigilant of the day to day actions of the government and intervene more. The various Portuguese political experts state that the already active President is going to be using his power of the word and his incredible popularity to call out the government to keep it in line and executing better. (paraphrasing)
One of the big reasons dissolution of the government is not in the near term is, the fact that the President cannot be certain the PSD, IL and other parties EXCEPT Chega will get enough votes to change the dynamic. Also, the experts say the government has until the end of the year to use as much of the their allocations of billions of free money from the EU Pandemic Resilience and Recovery funds, of which Portugal has used less than 1/3 to date. The PRR campaign is not going well in Portugal, but dissolving parliament means a 2 month break. Also, it would stop the the TAP inquiry which the President feels is important for transparency and accountability.
A couple of news sources hint that The President is giving the Social Government more rope to hang themselves and to decrease the popularity of the Costa Government, but The President will not dissolve parliament until after the 2024 MEP elections.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad Portugal news, but the possibility the More Housing bill containing Articles 43-46 will go away with a dissolution of Parliament is not in the cards unless it takes well over a year to get through all the hurdles. I had the same hopes and have been scrubbing every Portugal News site hoping, but to no avail.
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