Iāve tried to summarize everything we know about this topic in this article, plus provide a bit of background. Iāll try to keep it up to date. If itās missing anything or there are new developments I havenāt yet mentioned, feel free to ping me.
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When asked about the PMās announcement on 2 Nov that the government was considering an end to āgolden visasā the President of Portugal commented yesterday (4 Nov) that the end of the visas was an issue that had been āsuccessively approved and postponed in State Budgetsā and that he would only pronounce if Parliament approved it this time. āIt is a question that parliament will have to vote on and, when it reaches my hands, I will see if there are conditions to sign or not,ā he said.
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Very informative. I am a California lawyer and given that Portugal is a democracy with due process considerations and a rule of law framework, it would obviously make sense to have a process to wind down an existing government program, even one catering to foreigners, that respects the rights of investors.
You run this site very responsibly and I am very appreciative of the service you provide to us all trying to navigate a safe haven from an uncertain political situation of our own in the U.S.
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Iām pretty sure at this point the whole thing is a scam anyway and Iād really just like my money back.
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It might be for the best on a lot of fronts.
I suspect the underlying thinking is that capital isnāt a problem anymore - thereās enough money to go around already to invest in projects, esp with the NGEU funds that they canāt figure out how to spend fast enough. Besides, GV capital still primarily ends up in real estate - even with the changes, all thatās happened is that promoters have created various dodges around the rules - and itās clearly the last sector in need of more capital at this point.
What there appears to be is a desperate lack of people to do work. Even if you have money for projects, what good is it when there arenāt workers to build houses or staff for restaurants or nurses for hospitals? All those Ukranian refugees showed up and were just absorbed - you donāt see complaints in the news about any ālazy welfare-sucking refugeesā, just the ongoing complaints about unfilled positions. Salaries are an issue, but yet more capital thrown into real estate isnāt going to fix that. And letās not forget the demographics problem. Hence the new permit regimes for people who just want to come and find work.
GV has resulted in bureaucratic infighting, itās a political headache on a bunch of fronts, itās got a bad image, the EU doesnāt like itā¦ I can see where the thinking is āit just aināt worth it any more, put a fork in it, itās done.ā And theyāre probably right.
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Yeah, I kinda wish Iād thought about that more. Not that Iām unhappy with my investments - having done a LOT of research, I actually figure to make decent money in the end - but I might have enjoyed being involved with a startup. Itās just that Iād have needed one pre-canned and that was hard when I started. Just like there is another class for one where you start a business of any sort that employs 10 people. There was even a group that pre-canned it for you - theyād start businesses on your behalf (like open a cleaning business) and youād bungee-boss it. Just that the group closed up shop due to covid. Alas.
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But my intuition is that 9 of 10 of the incubator start ups will fail (as in 100% loss of capital). I think with the traditional GV itās more likely to be the inverse with 9 of 10 making a profit. However, there are a lot of ancillary concerns such as currency rate fluctuations that may make your thesis more probable but I donāt think its appropriate to second guess at that level over aspects of the economy in general or political meddling in economics that are beyond oneās control.
If you start a business and it fails do you no longer get your visa? Does it need to stay open for five years?
That would be enjoyable but Iāve no idea where to start. Though I do have a good idea for a fast food kinda restaurant that I think would do well in any walkable downtown
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Despite the PM commenting in early November that perhaps the GV programme had served its purpose, the Government yesterday (22 Nov 2022) voted against terminating the GV programme. During this week there are marathon sessions for each component of the budget. The PCP proposed the end of the GV regime and it was put to the vote, but the majority (Government, PSD and Chega parties) in Parliament voted against. PS vota contra fim dos vistos Gold - RenascenƧa
The issue is likely to come up again at a later date (ie 2023) as there is now a Task Force to review the pros and cons of continuing the GV and the Task Force will have to present their views/findings to Parliament.
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As expected, I think. I believe PAN had submitted a proposal to re-evaluate the program (not end it outright)ādo you know if this was voted on as well?
The way things are looking now Iād say sometime (probably end of) 2024 would be the earliest the program would end. More likely they would change and perhaps rebrand the program rather than ending it completely. Whether the 7 day/year minimum stay (for new applicants after restructuring) would remain is more uncertain in my view.
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The parties had until last Friday to submit alterations to the Proposed Budget, because the discussions would occur this week. The discussion came up in the context of a discussion on housing and curtailing new applications for Alojamento Local. The Left Block, PAN and PCP were clearly against GV. But there was only one vote, I believe. A brief history to this vote is given here : https://eco.sapo.pt/2022/11/11/dos-vistos-gold-ao-credito-a-habitacao-as-principais-propostas-de-alteracao-ao-orcamento-do-estado/. It is clear that the issue will come up again at a later date because of the Task Force review ahead.
Hereās another article that contains a bit more information than the Sapo one:
Seems both of PANās proposals also failed (one was to end the program, the other was to obligate the government to deliver a report on the effects of the program from 2012-2021.
Chega tried to expand the program with another ā¬250K category for investment into certain types of businesses, which also failed.
The only thing that passed was related to online applications for real estate investments in Madeira and the Azores.
Never mind, that was referring to the June vote.
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I believe the report in J.Expresso refers to the June 2022 vote. There have been several attempts over the years, but I thought you were referring to PAN moves this past November (after the PM comments) and before yesterdayās vote.
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Any details on this can be found?
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Investments in the country spur redevelopment and increased construction of new realty at no cost to the government
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I cannot tell you how many conversations Iāve had with people about Portugal, and how great it is. And it snowballsā¦ those people come over, with their skills, and their money, on a D7 or something else, and pay tax every year from then on. They start businesses that employ locals. Those people tell other people to come to Portugal, and so it goes. This is a great way to grow a country.
(Of course now, I am actively dissuading people from the GV)
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Itās really a shame how badly theyāve screwed up the GV
For the record, all immigration is good for a countryās economy. At worst it can slightly reduce wages for the bottom earners, but wages go up elsewhere (you need managers for all the new laborers, etc) and of course the added demand for goods and services
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Yes, you are correct, my bad! I still believe PAN had a proposal for the budget, but perhaps it hasnāt been voted on yet.
Well, the PM said they would study this and then make a decision. The study isnāt complete (as noted in this press release), so this vote is premature and largely meaningless to the question at hand. In the biz, this is what we call āspinā.
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