Well, if thatās gonna cheer anyone up, I vaguely remember a somewhat more positive situation with a HSMP visas in the UK in the early 2000s. The UK govāt at the time did some retroactive change to HSMP, found themselves on a receiving end of a lawsuit, and lost. So they had to reinstate the original rules for anyone who were negatively affected.
I donāt know exactly what kind of ābadā change it was, just remember seeing it in the news at the time. It was something to do with the points calculation for renewals.
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Thatās unfortunate what happened in new Zealand. But here itās even worseā¦ we are talking about actual monetary damagesā¦people who invested 350k or more. If the government cancels the GV program without warning, they owe those people a lot of damages.
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Sorry about that. If you actually just want to live in Portugal, I recommend doing the D7 visa instead. Thatās much less politically anathema.
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Thatās true. Iām not going to disappear quietly into the night this time. Iāll be fighting tooth and nail, as I suspect a lot of folks will be.
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Damages? You made an investment. Sell the investment at a profit or loss. In the meantime, you got to live in Portugal.
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Depends on the situationā¦but there is an expectation that government will ensure applications are processed within the timeframe laid down for processing such applications. If those applications submitted & qualifying would have already been granted residence & are now not because they were not processed in time, then that delay ( unnecessary caused by government) gives rise to damages imho. In that case there is no fault by the applicant.
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The better argument is that they canāt terminate a program as to you once you have reasonably relied on it. But delay in processing is different than terminating it outright. Delays for checking entitlement and background? Not sure Iād try that. In the US, millions of tax returns for 2021 have yet to be even opened by the IRS, and a lot of those folks are entitled to refunds.
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Hopefully there would be multiple ( unneeded) areas to claim, delays in processing being only one:
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I made a EUR 250K donation to an art museum with the understanding that I would receive a visa and subsequent renewals in return. I havenāt gotten anything out of it yet. So if the government for some reason retroactively changes the deal, youāre darn right I am going to claim damages.
250k refund from the government, please!
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Interesting analysis and proposal from APR:
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I think itās important to note that the ādealā that was officially offered by law is a single 2 year residence permit for investment purposes, renewable while the law is in effect.
The government makes no guarantees thereāll still be renewals when your 2 year residence permit expires (though there are renewals right now), let alone renewals for any duration, and there is no guarantee thereāll be permanent residence nor citizenship at the end of the tunnel. All of these renewal/PR/citizenship advertisements were made by Golden Visa consultants and lawyers.
For example, if the government wants to discourage new applications (after Feb 16) while avoiding accusations of unconstitutional retroactivity, the new law could limit renewals to those who had an initial application filed before Feb 16.
They could also make the Golden Visa program less attractive overall by adding physical presence requirements for PR/citizenship (eg 2.5 years in the last 5 years). To my knowledge, such a requirement will primarily affect only Golden Visa holders who do not live in Portugal.
The popular sentiment (and increasingly, government sentiment) towards Golden Visas has turned very negative. Anyone who applied/is considering applying should take extra care to avoid nonrefundable/locked-in investments. Understand that the risks above can thwart your whole motivations behind applying for such a scheme (with zero damages owed to you as none of it besides the first 2 year permit is guaranteed to remain unchanged), even if they honor and issue your first 2 year permit.
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I think you miss the big picture. Of course, there are many ways people in power can abuse that power. Just this week, Portugal opened up automatic residence registration to hundreds of thousands of people and crashed their systems so many foreigners took advantage of this. My point is that what does Portugal exactly have to gain by abusing ARI applicants who relied on a program and invested in Portugal. You could say on one hand, they want less foreigners, but clearly that is not true. You could say they want less investment, but that makes no sense. You could say they donāt want wealthy people spending money on housing. That makes little sense because it is no longer allowed by the rules, and there are many more people using other visa types to come to Portugal and buy and rent housing. So, you are left with the notion that people only want to abuse their positions for political advantage. They can score some quick political points but in the end is that good for Portugal? I donāt think so. It remains to be seen how this will shake out.
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āI made a EUR 250K donationā¦ā
They want to appease their voters and the EU, both of whom are overwhelmingly against Golden Visas. Besides a small group of business interests, thereās little support for GVs in the country.
Furthermore, Golden Visa investments donāt contribute to the economy the way a well-designed investment program would. Thatās not the fault of the investors of course, but it also means that it actually isnāt as critical as GV investors like to perceive themselves to be.
Vast majority of GV are in real estate, which doesnāt actually create many jobs and doesnāt do much for the economy except heat up the housing market. In essence, besides a very small number of consultants, lawyers, and overpriced real estate peddlers getting rich off of GV, very little of it makes it to the government in taxes (as most GV are not residing in Portugal, or they could have just gone for D7) or the economy.
There is perhaps more of an impact for funds (although a few are just REITs or real estate investments in disguise), arts donations, etc but the statistics show that these form a very small portion of the total GVs issued to date.
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Indeed! Although it has ended up being the least maligned ARI pathwayā¦so maybe it will work out in the ene.
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Not sure Iād be so harsh ā¦
In the depths of the GFC and after, downtown Lisbon was becoming a third-world ghettoā¦ Big number of abandoned, derelict or decaying buildings with no chance of renewal - even in the supposed main squares of Rossio et al. This for a modern European capitalā¦
The cityās fathers met - (something had to be done) and came up with the GV as one measure. It has āput a floorā under the gathering gentrification of the city centre with middle-class Portuguese returning (if to a large extent as Airbnb), and elsewhere as a by-product.
Looks magnificentā¦
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Again, I donāt disagree with your statements, but I think your overall assessment of the situation is incomplete.
Its fine to say that the golden visa is unpopular with the average person. That may be true. But have you studied how popular immigration in general is with the average population?
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Re D7 visa - the passive income requirement can be difficult to achieve.
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Not all of us can meet the D7 requirement - a certain passive income level.
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Oh 100%.
Immigration overall is unpopular, but the GV disdain is next-level. Thereās a perception, perhaps unfair given how few GVs there are, that GV is one of the culprits in rising home prices and the conversion of housing stock to short term rentals. Thereās a reason why the government isnāt abolishing digital nomad/D7 visas, but is caving to popular demand/EU pressure to abolish golden visas.
EU is also very unhappy with Golden Visas. They have recently sued Malta in the ECJ, telling them they need to end the scheme immediately. In fact, one of their demands is that Malta denies all pending applications (i.e. end the program with retroactive effect on anyone not already granted citizenship). I wonāt be surprised if the EU sets their sights on the Portugal GV program next, arguably the only remaining program that sells citizenship with extra steps (Malta has a 3 year wait, Portugal has a 5 year wait). For example, EU could pressure the Portuguese government to terminate GV renewals or implement stricter naturalization requirements, e.g. physical presence of 50-75% required.
Look, I want to make it clear that I donāt have a vendetta against GV. But I also want to provide the contrasting view that those selling you GVs try to hide. Just because one has a pending or even issued 2 year GV, doesnāt mean one will definitely be able to pursue a PR or citizenship successfully. Rules can and will change, as they are likely going to change with this law (and successive governments). Consultants, lawyers and companies like Mercan make a lot of profit out of GV, and have a huge incentive to make everything sound perfectly safe and rosy, promising āconstitutional protections against retroactivityā for those submitting now, when in fact that isnāt worth much for such a long journey. You may be protected for step 1, but what about steps 2-4 (2 renewals + citizenship requirements)?
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