What's the potential impact of the 2025 Portuguese election on the Golden Visa program and pathway to citizenship?

Heres what my lawyers proposed.

Long story short, highly risky, not everybody can attempt this, but to me worth the shot. Heads up it’s VERY long;

“ We are contacting you once again regarding the ongoing legislative process to amend the Portuguese Nationality Law, following a more in-depth analysis of the ruling issued by the Constitutional Court, mentioned in our previous communications below, and a discussion of its implications with the legal community.

In this context, given the multiple interpretations that the ruling has given rise to, and in compliance with our ethical duties of diligence and information, we feel obliged to share with you one of the possible interpretations of the content of that judgment, which has already been circulating in certain groups and forums.

Simplifying some complex issues for ease of understanding, the discussion centres on Article 15(4) of the current Nationality Law, which states that “For the purposes of counting the periods of legal residence provided for in this law, the time elapsed from the moment the temporary residence authorization was applied for shall also be considered, provided that it is ultimately granted.”

One interpretation of the Constitutional Court ruling — so far not confirmed by any governmental or institutional entity — the current Nationality Law would allow, under the provision contained in Article 15(4), the filing of a citizenship application while the residence process (Golden Visa) is still pending. This would also be the reason why the judges considered that a transitional regime is not necessary for the application of the new law.

According to this interpretation of the constitutional court ruling, and without setting out here the full extent of its analysis, Article 15(4), by stating that “For the purposes of counting the periods of legal residence provided for in this law, the time elapsed from the moment the temporary residence authorization was applied for shall also be considered, provided that it is ultimately granted,” allows an applicant with a pending residence process to file a nationality application, on the expectation that the residence process will be approved during the pendency of the citizenship process, being the relevant moment the approval moment and not the submission moment.

Considering that citizenship applications are currently taking approximately 24 to 36 months to be granted, this understanding could “safeguard” applicants who filed their residence application at least 2–3 years ago (say, before 2024), allowing them to submit the citizenship process now, since the combined calculation of both waiting periods (residency and citizenship) would mean that the required 5 years, under the current law, would be met in the meantime.

However, even if this understanding may be viable, it is not certain that the Portuguese Civil Registry — the entity responsible for citizenship applications — will adopt this interpretation.

First, it is important to observe that the current platform through which citizenship applications are filed has mandatory fields relating to the residence permit – number and validity - data that those without cards do not have - so the submission of an application under these conditions would always have to be made with certain abstract data or left blank.

Second, it may be that the IRN automatically rejects applications for which five years have not elapsed since the application date or card issuance date.

Third, we suspect that many applicants who might want to apply during this window will not yet have a language certificate, which is required as part of the naturalisation application. (It may be helpful to have at least booked a language course to demonstrate a pathway to this certificate.)

We therefore conclude that submitting citizenship applications under this interpretation is not guaranteed and entails the assumption, by the Applicant, of a high level of risk of refusal. Refusal could come soon after application, or after many months in a later stage of the Civil Registry process.

If the application for naturalisation is refused, there are a couple of consequences.

Firstly, we note that the IRN is permitted to refuse to consider a second application within two years of the first if it is submitted on the same grounds. However, our view is that a second application, under a new citizenship law, would be one submitted on different grounds, so this two-year rule would not apply. Thus, an early application should not preclude a later application under the new law (presumably after 10 years from first card issuance).
Second, a refusal could be challenged by the applicant in Court. This court process would likely take two to three years to be resolved.

As such, this is a decision that entails A) the risk of refusal based on an “incomplete application” with the possibility to discuss it in court and the potential need to submit a new citizenship application in the future, as opposed to B) the risk of being subject to a further 10-year waiting period before being able to initiate the citizenship process, counted from the first residency card date.

Estimated timeline and possible outcomes:

a) Immediate citizenship application with a waiting period of 2 to 3 years based on an “incomplete application” until decision --» approval by Civil Registry

b) Immediate citizenship application with a waiting period of 2 to 3 years based on an “incomplete application” until decision + refusal by Civil Registry + 2 to 3 years for a court appeal --» approval or rejection

c) Waiting for residency application period + card issuance + 10 years under the new law + 2 to 3 years of citizenship application --» approval

We remind you that the legal provision supporting this interpretation is one of those the current Government intends to revoke within the scope of the ongoing legislative process. In that regard, the submission of citizenship applications under this interpretation would only be possible up until the entry into force of the new Nationality Law—a date not yet defined, but which is estimated only after the presidential elections (February).

In short, therefore, there is a brief window, until a new Nationality Law is promulgated during which those who applied for the Golden Visa could apply for citizenship despite not having waited for five years since application, under this interpretation.

We understand that this is a complex decision and share the frustration of not having more concrete data to share with you at this moment neither more useful time to execute it."

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