What's the potential impact of the 2025 Portuguese election on the Golden Visa program and pathway to citizenship?

Corruption? Not yet; didn’t have to pay anybody off.
Political interference: No, the CBI program is explicitly President Erdogan’s idea.

Arbitrary, unannounced rule changes? Yes, there were. I had to travel to Turkey several more times than planned, and the whole process took double the advertised time – 14 months instead of the originally expected 6 to 8.

But Portugal will now take 17 to 19 years from investment to citizenship instead of the originally expected 6 to 8.

From someone who has suffered through PGV, the “hardship” of a few extra months waiting on Turkey barely registers.

8 Likes

Saw this today. It seems that these leaders have their own WhatsApp group where they share…

"Sweden’s parliament voted on April 29 to approve the most far-reaching overhaul of the country’s citizenship law in more than 50 years. From June 6, 2026, the general residency requirement for naturalization will rise from five years to eight, and applicants will, for the first time, face mandatory language proficiency, civics knowledge, and self-sufficiency tests.

An opposition attempt to attach transitional protections for the more than 100,000 people with pending citizenship applications failed by a single vote, 147-146. The bill passed in its original form with a wide majority, backed by the three governing coalition parties and the Sweden Democrats.

1 Like

Still not as bad as Portugal with a 5 to 10 year shift. With 3 years increase maybe I would still consider staying here.

1 Like

Yep. The two parts that struck me were the initial premise going in that the law that applies is that which is in effect on the day of review which seems to be what Ventura was yapping about. At least their program was upfront and had codified the premise of the rug pull potential. Then, the apparent shenanigans regarding the close vote to provide a graceful transition. Can’t fathom why anyone would embark on a journey when the destination can be changed anytime. Who would start a degree program where the graduation requirements were arbitrary and could change at any time?

3 Likes

Well, two wrongs surely do not make it right! At least the transitional protection failed by just a single vote as opposed to the wide margin in Portugal - not that it helps in either case. However, in Portugal we obviously tied our hefty investments to the GV, and we are now facing rather uncertain future of our financial contributions. This is in addition to the lengthening of naturalisatoin wait period, elimination of wait time for the first residency card, and excessively long naturalisation process. I doubt that Swedish applicants were facing the same financial burden and uncertainty.

Ultimately, it is time that is the most costly. Considering that I live in Portugal for almost four years, I should have obtained D7 from the start. Not only I would have been free of any financial obligation, I could have purchased any real estate in any price range, saved tons of money on GV and attorney fees, and would be looking at least at a PR and even EU PR next year. Since I only received my first card barely a year ago, I still have four years until PR. It hurts to think even more that if I had opted for France, I would be applying for citizenship next year without too many issues (since I already speak French at around B1 to B2 level). Trusting Portugal was a big strategic error on my part!..

15 Likes

I wouldn’t be surprised if Portugal takes notes. They already have tightend the rules, and they may well come back with a stronger version.

You are writing as if you want such a new thing happen, just to confirm your (negative) feelings. but there is a saying “don’t call the angels or they will come”

1 Like

Oh, I wish everything I said would come true! It hasn’t, so don’t worry!

3 Likes

A lawyer in the WhatsApp group says it’s likely the regulations will update the language requirement to B1, in line with the general, more strict direction of the law.

2 Likes

Curious to see what the regulations will finally say. Is there an ETA on when the regulations will come out?

I don’t see how they can possibly know that or why anyone would trust what lawyers speculate

2 Likes

Supposed to be 90 business days IIRC. But they can just ignore that too, see the previous nationality law change

1 Like

Actually it is worse in fact, because it requires 8 years of permanent residence not counting the the time it took to obtain the permanent residence status, where only employment counts. If the same principle was applied in Portugal it would be 15 years.

1 Like

I agree. We should have a new thread dedicated to these new developments where we can share timely news articles, advice, etc on the predicament that so many of us now find ourselves. A one stop shop would be very helpful.

2 Likes

He (Andre Miranda) didn’t, really. It was more an example of what could be done in regulations that could make things worse. B1 was an example, not something he said was specifically likely. Here’s what he said:

“I would not have high hopes about this. I believe there is a greater likelihood that the Regulation will come to complement the Law in a less favorable way than what is currently provided for in the existing Regulation. For example, the Law requires the applicant to demonstrate that they “have sufficient knowledge of the Portuguese language,” and the existing Regulation sets level A2 as the minimum requirement, but the new version of the Regulation could be more restrictive and raise the standard to B1, for example”

I agree with Tommigun on this, if the law text passed by the parliament has been approved as it is, there is a clear phrase stating how the current applications will be treated as per the old - 5 year rule. The whole attempt of trying to implement the new law to the pending citizenship law was, what was found unconstitutional and hence the new law clearly had the protection clause for the pending applications.

Still I need to see the actual final law in the official gazette to be 100% sure that the protection phrase for the pending applications are kept. Few things give me peace of mind; my lawyers confirmed that, the actual text approved in the parliament has it and the president has made open comments about the pending applications should be protected..

So does Venture not know what has been approved, surely he does, and I believe this is just one other example of politician sending a message to his supporters.

3 Likes

No, that’s not true. Given people are looking at alternatives to Portugal’s chaos, it’s worth pointing out a couple of things about Turkey. Turkey’s economy is struggling in a way that should matter to CBI investors (for starters, inflation is over 30%) and does not have strong rule of law. There are countless ways it could changes the rules and lock up capital, even after they give you a passport. The country has placed restrictions on capital outflows before. They’ve been willing to use the banking system to lock up funds when the economy was under stress. Any country without strong constitutional protections can easily screw over non-native borns when it chooses.

What Erdogan giveth, Erdogan can take away. That is how Turkey operates. Countries with strong centralized power and weak judicial independence can turn on a dime.

Look, I honestly wish you both the best of luck. No one denies Portugal is a bust. But I don’t think anyone on these forums should be naive about the next struggling country rolling out the red carpet for foreigners with deep pockets. The lesson of Portugal is that if it looks too good to be true, it likely is. By all means, try Turkey if you want a quick second passport and visa-free Schengen access isn’t a priority. For some people, it might be their best option. We also can’t pretend Turkey doesn’t also present significant downsides. Being honest about the risks is what this forum is for.

7 Likes

That’s one point. The second one is to see how this will be implemented. Only the time will tell, but somehow I feel that I am up for a legal battle to “remind” them about these “legal protections”. After all, they did ignore most of Jorgé Miranda’s warnings about unconstitutionality of diverse treatment of applicants who are processed at different rates, yielding different results. Who knows what they will do now.

6 Likes

Subject: Update on our Golden Visa journey / Withdrawal>

I wanted to share an update regarding our Golden Visa process. After missing our biometrics appointment in January, we have decided not to move forward. My husband was unable to attend due to a mandatory professional conference, and despite our attorney notifying AIMA well in advance, he has yet to be rescheduled.

Given the current political uncertainty and the significant capital requirement—over $500,000 plus fees—we have decided to sell our real estate investment while the market remains strong. While we love Portugal dearly, we’ve realized that visiting on vacation is a more practical path for us.

Wishing everyone the best of luck with your applications. We truly hope Portugal continues to grandfather in those currently in the queue!

16 Likes

The ARI/GV may not have been directly impact by the new law but they have plenty of ways to totally gum up the system. Case in point, the apparent new requirement that ARI holders must now have a NIF to renew their visas. AIMA says investors must have a NIF to renew their residency - The Portugal News

1 Like