What's the potential impact of the 2025 Portuguese election on the Golden Visa program and pathway to citizenship?

Should IRN move forwards with setting up a priority system to reduce backlogs …?

Monday has passed in Portugal, and I was curious to see whether there would be any developments after the immigration law portfolio spent a day in committee.

I suppose that no news is good news, given that the parliamentary summer recess is just days away. But I must concede that this is keeping me awake at night.

That article from Portugal Decoded was one of the most informative resources I’ve seen yet. I look forward to their next installment, and any other insightful news that may emerge.

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I see that there is a lot of negative sentiment in this thread which is without reason. The nationality law in Portugal is constitutionally protected meaning any changes must pass with an absolute majority and not just a simple majority. Absentee votes count as No in this case, meaning that the government must attract support from all the opposition parties if they are serious about pushing any change.

Not everyone in AD will vote for the bill in the proposed form. I take it that the ministers will vote but there are factions in the party that may not agree with this extreme shift in policy. Some will vote against it because it bars family reunification or because it could be unconstitutional, some will have interests in industries that will be harmed if they were stopped from hiring immigrant workers and many, even though they agree in principle, could be put off by the hard rhetoric coming from Chega in the debate and simply abstain from voting to disassociate themselves.

Support for the bill in Chega appears to be strong, but this is just the beginning of the story. As concessions start to be made, language watered down and controversial parts removed as part of the amendment process we will see dissent from a few Chega members who will actually vote against the final bill for not being strict enough.

As for the other parties on the left, I would be very surprised to see anyone voting in favor unless the final bill has shifted dramatically from its current form. The parties on the left will propose amendments that could pass during debate if enough AD members voted in line, which could be deal breakers that ultimately stalls its momentum and support.

In the end, Portugal has always been a progressive country with open policies towards immigration, and being lenient more so than most other EU countries isn’t without cause. Portugal actually struggles to attract and retain immigrant workers in the country when their stats are compared to other EU states, and the native population is still going through an emigration phase especially among the youth and highly qualified. Portuguese nationality could be harder to acquire in the future, I don’t dispute this fact, but it will not take the order of a decade of someone’s life and be on the same level as countries like Norway and Switzerland.

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My lawyers sent an email this morning saying we might not hear any updates from the committee / backroom discussions until around July 16th. They also said there is a lot of lobbying underway (fund managers, lawyers, migrant groups etc) to try get some kind of transition period on the 5 to 10 year citizenship change for people who already have residency, that the government has been made well aware of our frustrations and the damage this is causing Portugal’s reputation with investors. But the outcome is still uncertain. A lot of conflicting forces wanting to claim some kind of victory from this moment. Unfortunately ARI is only a one piece in a big political puzzle.

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Hopefully also some justice for “people who don’t already have residency” through no fault of their own, but SEF/AIMA’s rampant incompetence… and the PT government’s creation of this mess in the first place!

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I agree. The fact the government blew through its own mandated deadlines to put people in that kind of limbo is damning. I wouldn’t read anything into my comment to suggest that problem isn’t also being discussed (the LinkedIn post above suggests it is), just doesn’t apply to my case so I didn’t ask.

The point made in the commissioned study of the legislation by the father of the Portuguese Constitution, specifically about how people who apply on the same day should not be subject to different legal regimes because of the state’s arbitrary processing delays, should provide some useful fodder for a lawsuit if nothing else.

It’s bad enough that people who applied at the same time are looking at different eligibility dates because of the delays alone. That this should subject them to another 5 year delay because of a poor roll of the dice–SEF/AIMA spectacularly failing to meet its own published processing deadlines–is impossible to square with the principle of legal certainty.

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https://www.dn.pt/política/parlamento-comissão-discute-na-quarta-feira-alterações-na-lei-dos-estrangeiros-e-da-nacionalidade

An article from Diario de Noticias yesterday (in Portuguese). The Committee is meeting on Wednesday at 10 AM and will start discussing the proposed changes to the Foreigners and Nationality Law. This topic is on the committee’s agenda for the coming few days.

" Speaking to journalists after last Friday’s session, André Ventura said that the legislative process would be completed “by the end of July”. When asked if there would be time, the Chega leader said that it is possible to meet this goal ."

There is a chance that this might pass before Parliament goes into recess. Sigh …

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This is off topic, but what you are saying is not true. Let’s just use one example. There is no “retroactive” stripping of birthright citizenship. Even if you take the view that the executive order of the White House is not effective, by its terms it applies in the future. Which is different from what Portugal is doing. So there’s that…

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Given my personal experience with PT lawsuits (to try move our ARI application along), I wouldn’t count on them coming to everyone’s rescue:
a) arbitrary and capricious rulings (a.k.a. “judge lotto”)
b) already-massive backlog in the Courts (our “accepted” appeal has gone nowhere for almost a year now)
c) our lawyer is in the “Citizenship Law is an autonomous legal regime from the GV/Portuguese Aliens Act legal regime” camp, and thinks that trying to link them is “a weak legal argument.” Of course this is just one PT legal opinion, but it absolutely will contribute to the arbitrary rulings that I noted in (a)

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The proposal for alterations to the Nationality Law has been published here:

This has gone to the Committee on the Constitution, Rights, Liberties and Guarantees, that will meet tomorrow [9 July] to discuss.

As a reminder, if anyone wants to have their voice heard, please write to the Committee members NOW.

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The arguments made by the legislature to justify lack of Constitutional protection mirror those arguments made by @lifedreamer , almost verbatim. I would surmise from this that lifedreamer is not your average ARI investor.

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There is also an interesting linked article on that page which seems to indicate that the government is planning to create unequal rules for higher-skilled workers and limit rights of low-skilled immigrants, including those from CPLP.
https://www.dn.pt/política/governo-fecha-as-portas-ainda-mais-à-imigração-economia-terá-que-se-adaptar-diz-ministro

It is really hard to see just how all these disperate proposals/changes could be harmonised into a law by the end of next week. What is certain is that something will be done to stop the influx of immigrants as the status quo is unsustainable for Portugal according to the legislators.

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Lala - is definitely unequivocally false. And also off topic.
No such thing is happening ,not even close. Bad analogy, not applicable here, I am sorry.

From what I can tell, ignoring application waiting time is still in the latest proposal - despite good arguments that that’s unconstitutional:

Artigo 5.º, n.º 5 e 6 - PT version

Artigo 5.º, n.º 5 e 6

5 - Para a contabilização dos prazos de residência legal em território português, efetuada nos termos do artigo 15.º da Lei n.º 37/81, de 3 de outubro, não é considerado:

a) O tempo de permanência em Portugal ao abrigo do instituto da manifestação de interesse, previsto nos n.os 6 e 7 do artigo 81.º, nos n.os 2 e 6 do artigo 88.º e nos n.os 2, 4 e 5 do artigo 89.º da Lei n.º 23/2007, de 4 de julho, entretanto revogados pelo Decreto-Lei n.º 37-A/2024, de 3 de julho;

b) O tempo decorrido entre o momento em que foi requerida a autorização de residência temporária e a data do respetivo deferimento.

6 - O disposto no número anterior tem natureza interpretativa.

English Translation

Article 5, paragraphs 5 and 6

5 – For the purpose of calculating periods of legal residence in Portuguese territory, as provided under Article 15 of Law no. 37/81, of October 3, the following shall not be considered:

a) Time spent in Portugal under the “manifestação de interesse” (expression of interest) procedure, as provided in the now-revoked provisions of Law no. 23/2007;

b) The period between the date on which a temporary residence permit was requested and the date it was approved.

6 – The above provision shall be considered interpretative in nature.

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…cut-off of 19-June, 2025 is also still in the latest proposal (and there’s that “na sua redação atual” again):

Artigo 5.º – Aplicação no tempo - PT version

2 – As alterações introduzidas pela presente lei aplicam-se aos procedimentos de concessão da nacionalidade, com fundamento no n.º 1 do artigo 6.º, iniciados a partir do dia 19 de junho de 2025.

3 – Aplica-se a Lei n.º 37/81, de 3 de outubro, na sua redação atual, aos procedimentos administrativos, com fundamento no n.º 1 do artigo 6.º, iniciados em data anterior a 19 de junho de 2025, desde que, até essa data, à submissão do pedido de concessão de nacionalidade correspondessem os requisitos materiais exigidos por essa lei.

English Translation

2 – The changes introduced by this law apply to nationality granting procedures, based on paragraph 1 of Article 6 of Law No. 37/81, initiated on or after June 19, 2025.

3 – Law No. 37/81, of October 3, in its current wording, shall apply to administrative procedures initiated before June 19, 2025, provided that the nationality application submitted by that date meets the material requirements set out by that law.

Draft Law No. 1/XVII/1st (June 2025) – Main Points in English (ChatGPT summary)

1. Why the law is being changed

  • Constitutional duty & fundamental right: Portuguese nationality is a fundamental right, but Parliament can set the conditions (Articles 4, 26, 164, 166 of the Constitution).
  • International & EU constraints: Portugal must avoid statelessness but also ensure genuine links, comply with the 1997 European Convention on Nationality, and respect EU principles after the Comissão v. Malta ruling that bans “citizenship-for-sale”.
  • Policy problems since 2018/20 reforms: Extremely liberal rules (very short/zero residence requirements, automatic jus soli, acceptance of irregular stay, generous special routes) triggered a surge in applications, administrative backlogs, “passport of convenience” perception, and tension with migration policy and other EU members.

2. Core objectives of the 2025 reform

  • Restore a credible, connection-based nationality regime.
  • Tighten access both for children born in Portugal and for naturalisation of adults and minors.
  • Abolish the special Sephardi-descendant route.
  • Introduce loss of nationality for serious crimes within 10 years of naturalisation.

3. Key changes to nationality by birth (Article 1)

Current rule Proposed rule
Automatic nationality at birth if one parent has any legal residence (even <2 yrs) or just “manifested interest” Not automatic. Child must later declare the wish to be Portuguese and one parent must have 3 years of legal residence at the child’s birth.
Residence proved merely by ID card Must show valid residence permit or other legal status documents.

4. Key changes to naturalisation (Article 6)

Category Main new requirements
Adults • 7 years’ legal residence for CPLP nationals; 10 years for others.
• Sufficient knowledge of Portuguese language and culture.
• Knowledge of fundamental rights & political system.
Sworn declaration of adherence to constitutional principles.
• No effective prison sentence (any length) and no terrorism/violent-crime links.
Minors born in Portugal Parent must have 5 years’ legal residence; child must be enrolled in compulsory education; criminal-record-type checks if above age of criminal responsibility.
Stateless persons 4 years’ legal residence plus general conditions.
Discretionary routes Only for:
– children in institutional care;
– 3rd-degree descendants of Portuguese;
– foreigners who rendered relevant services.
All other extraordinary routes (e.g. Sephardi) repealed.
Free procedures Now limited to the three vulnerable categories above.

5. Residence counting rules (Article 15)

  • Only legal residence periods count; must fall within a window of 6 yrs (stateless), 9 yrs (CPLP), or 12 yrs (others).
  • Time under “manifestation of interest” or waiting for a first residence permit no longer counts (clarified as interpretative).

6. Loss of nationality (Article 8)

  • Naturalised citizens with another nationality can lose Portuguese nationality by court order if, within 10 years of naturalisation, they are sentenced to ≥ 5 years’ prison for serious offences (terrorism, violent crime, drug/arms trafficking, crimes against the State, etc.).
  • Barred from reapplying for 10 years.

7. Consolidation & nullity (Articles 12-A/B)

  • Nationality obtained in good faith consolidates after 10 years (previous 18-month “fast consolidation” for babies abolished).
  • Acts based on false documents remain void unless revocation would create statelessness.

8. Biometrics & procedure

  • IRN may collect facial image, fingerprints and height; data can be reused for the Citizen Card.
  • Physical presence normally required for declarations; can be waived only for proven incapacity.

9. Transitional rules

  • New naturalisation criteria apply to applications filed on or after 19 June 2025 (date the Government programme was approved).
  • Pending files submitted earlier stay under the old rules only if they already met those rules on that date.
  • Crime-related loss provisions apply only to offences committed after the law enters into force.

10. Repeals & renumbering

  • Deletes the Sephardi route, automatic parent-naturalisation loop, various broad exemptions, and the rule counting time between filing and grant of first residence permit.
  • Numerous articles renumbered; the entire law is republished for clarity.

11. Entry into force

  • The new law takes effect the day after publication; Government must amend the Nationality Regulation and set exam/declaration content within 90 days.

Bottom line: the draft law moves Portugal from one of the EU’s most permissive citizenship regimes to a much stricter, link-focused model, lengthening residence requirements, re-introducing jus-soli safeguards, ending the Sephardic fast-track, and allowing deprivation of nationality for grave crimes in the first decade after naturalisation.

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I know there was talk of breaking the bill into several bills to make passage faster. Do we hope this stays in one of the final bills? i.e. since this is very likely constitutionally invalid would the whole bill be ruled invalid or would the effective date just be pushed forward by the courts?

If the whole bill is nuked (if that is the procedure in Portugal) then maybe we get lucky with whatever parts were in that particular bill also failing until they could be passed later again…

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As I interpret it, this clearly illustrates the common meaning of “na sua redação atual”. It fixes the conditions as they were up to this moment. It explicitly does not mean “as subject to proposed and future amendments”.

Given that the SEF and AIMA sites promised the right to apply for citizenship according to the law “na sua redação atual”, I believe that this establishes a legitimate expectation for that promised benefit that must not be revoked with retroactive effect.

Fingers crossed!

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Thank you very much for the clear explanation.
Just to clarify—does “applications filed on or after 19 June 2025” refer to the submission date of the PGV application?