I’ve really sorta just tuned out at this point. It’s going to be what it’s going to be and there’s not a lot I can do about it. I’ve already stuck a whole pile of money into the country both in GV and in property. I’ve had to let go of the anger and frustration lest it take over entirely.
I guess I knew shit could go pear-shaped when I got into this.
Of course I will also note that my wife is a yoga teacher.
not financial advice, but if your property is not attached to your GV, it’s not a bad idea to think about reducing some exposure, rents are already falling due to less people coming in
All the European programs that were created and became popular during the debt crisis were designed with a kind of gentleman’s agreement between the investor and the government. Once you put down the money, unlike in English-speaking countries, you basically would get residency. That’s why we hardly hear of anyone’s application being rejected. A sudden and drastic policy change of this scale, this controversial that I can think of is Canada’s program around 10 years ago. But at that time, the investment was made to government, which—unlike the PGV in recent years—meant the money wasn’t invested in funds that the government cannot control, and many of those are closed funds. The Canadian government returned all the principal and basically canceled all the applications that were pending. It was controversial at the time, but the economic losses of applicants were minimal. But things are much more complicated here for the PGV.(The following is from an AI source but it is accurate.) In 2012–2013, Canada put a moratorium on the federal Immigrant Investor Program (FIIP) and formally terminated it in 2014. Those federal cases had their investment principal and government fees refunded (no interest). Under the federal Immigrant Investor Program (FIIP) the investor’s principal was paid to the Government of Canada (administered by CIC/IRCC) and then redistributed to participating provinces and territories for economic development. Provinces guaranteed the funds; the principal was repaid after ~5 years with no interest.
That’s us. As we didn’t know anything about Lisbon’s real estate market in 2021 we invested in a qualifying VC fund even though we intended to move here at some point. We just didn’t want to buy somewhere in a location that would not prove to be amenable to us. In the event, we got our cards and moved in 2024 and bought a home costing way more than the GV investment just off Avenida da Liberdade after consideration of all the areas of Lisbon and we are very comfortable here. I think, though, we have sunk enough in the country now and our process over the life of the VC fund as it exits the invested businesses and returns capital to investors will be to remove the cash and park it in our safe haven. Certainly, we will remain tax resident as long as the NHR holds up to and including 2033 which will pretty much take us up to the worst case citizenship application date. It just feels a long, long way away from the original fantasies of 2021.
Us too. Unfortunately our relationship with where we live runs hot and cold. We like the area and many neighbours, but the winters are wet, windy and extremely cold indoors. Plus, one nearby 5 bed house has been turned into an Algarvean party palace. The noise is nerve-shredding at times.
…these literally digital nomads tracked down the Portuguese web developers responsible for creating and maintaining the [AIMA renewal portal] site and asked for assistance and resolution – directly. Not content with facing persistent and fatal bugs on the mis-named ‘renewals’ site, the thwarted techies on the demand-side of the migration equation asked their counterparts on the (lack-of) supply-side to enter data and progress their cases, on their behalf.
Russia returns to the top [3] of “ golden visas ” in Portugal and breaks record
After being suspended following the invasion of Ukraine, the granting of “golden visas” [to Russians] was resumed in 2024, and reached a new high of 248.
In 2024, 248 residence permits for investment activity (better known as “golden visas”) were granted to Russian citizens, a record number for the Russian Federation and placing the country in third place among countries with the most “golden visas” granted last year. In total, 2,081 of these [GV] residence permits were granted, with the USA (with 406) and China (296) standing out.
Need to vent here - When I first applied 4 years ago, I was excited to move to Portugal. I was planning on setting up an office and investing there.
I still have no card and impromptu legislation has affected the performance of the fund. If I’m (very) lucky, I’ll get a passport in 3-4 years. Enough time and drama has happened that I’m no longer interested in living or investing in Portugal and I don’t really care about the passport anymore. It’s been an unfortunate outcome and I’m liquidating my interest in the fund as soon as I’m able.
Politics around the world are becoming more extremist, but it really stings that not one of Portugal’s three major parties took a rule-of-law or investor rights position to protect all legacy GVers. It also gives you a clear indication of the direction Portugal is headed.
Famed economist Ludwig von Mises, who escaped Nazi persecution, once said, “It is the rule of law alone which hinders the rulers from turning themselves into the worst gangsters.”
Many developed countries are now turning toward 20th century Argentina-type philosophically-extremist crony politics. Some of these may even become, as my Argentinian ex-boss liked to say, “former first-World nations”.
Meanwhile, upper-middle-income countries that have improving or stable rule of law and institutions may prosper the most in coming years.
They are not people who think strategically or have sharp analytical minds. Whenever they make a decision, they fail to consider its consequences or possible long-term effects. They’re so shortsighted that both the right and the left actually approved the citizenship reforms originally pushed five years ago by the then-unknown Chega party.
But these fools don’t realize that Chega will soon say: “Look how, in just a few years, we’ve managed to shake up the same political class that’s been useless since 1974. Elect us next year, and we’ll get things done.” And unfortunately, that message will resonate — they’ll likely consolidate votes from both sides.
No one seems to think about what the consequences will be. Here’s what will happen: many investors will pull their money from funds, and those who were considering new investments will back away, saying “I don’t want to deal with these arrogant amateurs.” Liquidity problems will follow. They’ll no longer find any naïve foreign buyers willing to pay 600–800k euros for those moldy, neglected houses from the Salazar era.
Then they’ll wake up and say, “What fools we were — let’s reverse this policy.” But by then it’ll be too late.
And let’s be honest — there’s no more easy money in the EU. The rich North no longer wants to subsidize the poor South. Their own social systems are collapsing, and they can’t sell as easily to China or America anymore. Naturally, this will hit Portugal hard.
My main frustration, however, isn’t just with the politicians. It’s with the fund managers, elites, and law firms who should be lobbying the government and warning them that this is a huge mistake — yet they’re silent.
Frankly, the Portuguese people have become a major disappointment in my eyes. They no longer project the image of a reliable or capable workforce, nor of a nation that one can truly do business with.
They might be - but how would you know? It’s hardly something that is going to be in the funny papers.
Across the world, a lot of people are suffering under the results of a lot of bad, or at least ill-informed policies based on what I might consider naive views of how the world works and how people work; policies born in ideals, without ever heeding Oliver Cromwell’s “I beseech thee, in the bowels of Christ, consider that ye might be mistaken” (a quote that’s stuck with me as of late). I think a lot of those suffering people are further overwhelmed by a rate of change in societal and cultural norms and the way things are done in their daily lives (death of newspapers, online tools to do everything that many people can’t understand, now AI), made even worse by a declining standard of living - how many people are working two or three jobs to just get by? - some of which due to those policies, some of it just a natural result of the ebb and flow of things.
Better or worse broadly? I’m not speaking to that, though I would have to ask “for who, and by what standards”? It’s the rate of change itself that is what I am speaking to. The greater share of people are mostly creatures of habit and seek comfort in known institutions and cultural mores. It’s all changing and shattering around them, and they are tired and frustrated about it all, and they want it to stop, and they don’t care how, or what the result is - they haven’t the mental wherewithal to think that far, all they know is the pain they are in now.
The mere name of Chega says it all. ‘ENOUGH!’ Not a statement of goals or principles, a cry for it all to just stop.
I rather guessed something like this was going to happen in due course. There were just too many folks flooding into Portugal, much as there were into the US, there was bound to be an… unpleasant… reaction. I misjudged the magnitude of the reaction, perhaps. And yeah it sucks, and yeah I’ve got some regrets now that I ever went down the path, but perhaps I was naive too at the time, and… I also felt like all hell was going to break loose at some point and I needed to do something. Now of course I see maybe I didn’t do enough back when I could, but I also understand why I didn’t. Which also sucks.