COVID-19 has taken the world by storm, and just like it attacks the weakest spots in a human’s body, it’s attacking the weakest spots in economies, both personal and national. For most Golden Visa seekers, the perceived impending chaos is a trigger to accelerate their plans and this will for sure create asymmetric demand in which it will be extremely hard to evaluate the fair market price of especially direct real estate purchases. As investors want to capitalize on the downturn, they often overlook the fact that they need to understand the supply-demand mechanism of the market they are trying to profit in.
First I am glad he mentioned the BS behind guaranteed returns. I spent a career as Wall Street Analyst and when I hear something is guaranteed my reaction is, who’s guaranteeing the return? What is their credit rating? What is the risk they will go bankrupt etc… we used quantitative models to determine the fair market value of a a guarantee. So the moment I see such language I turn the page because the seller just lost all credibility.
Second to number 2 and 3 I would add one critical word that is implied. Transparency! I covered a lot of complex products and many I can tell you were impossible to evaluate due to lack of transparency. The lack of transparency is exactly what has led to so many past crashes and in particular the housing crash of 2008. It was my job to provide the transparency and I can tell you that not even the rating agency had the right evaluations models because of poor transparency. So if I invest in something I want to do my own simulations. That means I want to know how they came up with their expected returns, where they get the data, and how robust the data are.
Next I would like to add the word sustainability. Private equity is notorious for buying up companies, levering their balance sheets and then paying themselves big dividend. Sometimes the exit plan is letting the company file for bankruptcy. Clearly this is not a sustainable model even if their dividends covered the original investment and then some. A sustainable investment should not be about extracting wealth or creating a pyramid scheme but rather will help grow the middle class of the country and lead to more long term stability. So with that in mind I am quite wary of buying Lisbon flats and airb&bing them. This has pushed local inhabitants out of the rental market which is leading to social unrest. Oligarchs buying up real estate in world centers to launder their money has led to high returns in these market but is also not a sustainable return as it has left the markets out of reach for most of the people living there.
I am also glad to hear their perspective about Portugal as it is currently my front runner. I am not sure if Golden Visa is my best route as I am just planning to retire there and may not need to pay the 25K it cost to get such a visa.