Not at all surprising populists are making popular but dumb policy
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This article has a bit more details than the one posted above:
https://www.portugalresident.com/government-unveils-measures-to-bolster-housing-market/
They havenât said anything about the GV program as a whole, they seem to have just mentioned residential real estate.
These are also just proposals at this point, thereâs a period of 30 days to collect feedback on the proposals before anything actually goes into effect.
From the first read it seems the only current investors potentially being affected are the ones owning properties that are being rented out as Airbnbâs or similar. They may be forced to rent out as long-term housing instead. The idea is to increase the overall housing stock available for rent by actual residents.
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I dont agree that it is dumb policy. What they are doing will help the property markets - even if just an incremental amount. You could argue that every little bit helps. But at the same time, I agree there are other things they could do that would have a larger impact. But the GV is an easy scapegoat.
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Good article thank you
Sounds like a mix of building more housing and removing red tape (good) but also a bunch of dumb economically illiterate stuff
With golden visa holders and applicants in the cross fire
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itâs legislating everyone get flu shots when COVID is rampaging through the country, or something like that. Ignoring the actual source problem (low supply of housing) to pass laws that people think will solve it but actually do little
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My read of this is that those investing in funds are quite possibly not going to be impacted.
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Another win for fundchads over propertycels
(a joke, of course)
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If you read the Portugal Resident article, I think the interpretation is more favorable, as TK running mentioned. They are just saying that you canât buy a property for GV and then do a short term rental.
âNo longer grant golden visasâ Starting now?? They cannot impose the new policy to investors who made their investments back in 2021, this is not legal. But they also said â renewals cannot be madeâ for people who already have a residence permit. This is such a irresponsible move.
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Give it a bit. Likely that interpretation is incorrect in one or more ways.
But yeah lawyers at the ready just in case
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âend of the granting of new golden visas for habitation purposesâ sounded to me like theyâre not keen on granting new GVs for anything residence based at all (agree regarding your comment on existing). Weâll just have to sit tight and wait for more detail to shake out I suppose.
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Yes, I wouldnât overreact just yet. They may give a 6 month window for people to get in their applications, and then cut it off for anything in the future. I actually agree with this policy if its measured and doesnât prejudice people who are in the pipeline already. Simply proscribing that GV property owners cant do short term rentals seems totally reasonable to me. The original article in TPN implied something much more ominous.
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Yeah, agree with this. It sounds to me itâs just targeting residential real estate, but who knows. Letâs see how things shake out.
Although if I was in the process of acquiring residential real estate for GV purposes at the moment Iâd probably want to hold off on the purchase until thereâs more clarity (unless youâd be fine putting the property on the long-term rental market or use it as your primary residence).
As for commercial real estate, I think it would make sense to keep that around. After all, Portugal wants tourists, and if they arenât going to stay in Airbnbs then they need more hotels. But as usual everything is as clear as mud, and logic wonât necessarily trump populism.
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Except they canât build those fast enough either. They canât build anything fast enough. Expresso has an interesting article where they point out that over the last 10 years, the actual housing stock has barely gone up.
Never has so little been built in Portugal as in the last decade. In 10 years, 110,784 residential buildings were built in Portugal, according to the General Housing Census, promoted by the National Institute of Statistics (INE).
The housing stock has 4,142,581 regular residences, 1,104,881 secondary and 723,215 vacant dwellings, without housing.
The results of the 2021 Census indicate a slowdown in the pace of growth of the housing stock: currently with 3,573,416 classic buildings and 5,981,482 dwellings â a growth of 1.7% in dwellings and 0.8% in buildings, which is lower compared to previous decades.
And the situation has been getting worse. In 2022, INE reported an increase in construction of 2%, slowing down from 3% in the previous year.
Granted this is a much more common phenomenon than not - consider London, which is basically hemmed in by the Green Belt and NIMBYism. or Bay Area or NYC. And any number of those 723k âhousesâ may be pre-1951 ruins. In any case, itâs all a huge problem, and the influx of rich foreigners is making it a lot worse. Sure, itâs a regulatory problem as much as anything. So? Is GV really affecting this at all? No. Itâs just caught in the crossfire. Doesnât matter though. In a country that already resents wealth, and where all the foreigners coming in can and do just outbid the locals without even trying hard, the optics are hideous, whatever the âtruthâ.
That said, Iâd guess itâs a victim of intra-party horse-trading as much as anything.
Oh, and Iâm not sure itâs certain that Portugal wants more tourists. They can barely cope with what they have. Certain sectors, sure. And certainly business wants it. But business can barely hire people to service what they have. And Barrio Alto⊠my Portuguese friend refuses to even go there any more, and it used to be the cool place to go. Same other places. At some point you get sick of it whatever the economic benefits.
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Here is a bit more detail I read, whatever this might meanâŠ
NotĂcia atualizada Ă s 17:30 para clarificar que a renovação dos Vistos Gold nĂŁo tem de obedecer ao critĂ©rio de colocação no mercado de arrendamento acessĂvel.
The pendulum swings but only ever in two positions.
I found it odd when I recently read that the Portugal consular office was last week at a forum in San Francisco intended to encourage Californians to move to Portugal. It was clearly sponsored by some real estate group, but the government representation was there. On one hand they are saying âenoughâ and on the other hand they are saying âplease comeâ. It should be no surprise that people are confused by these mixed messages.
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Oh for sure. I left out the more on purpose. Iâm sure the increase in tourism has been a boon to the economy overall, but of course this only directly benefits a smaller subset of the population.
I totally get this sentiment. From a purely selfish point of view Iâd like to see way fewer tourists in Portugal myself. Visiting Lisbon during the early days of the pandemic (when there were basically no tourists) and actually recognizing the city I fell in love with more than a decade earlier definitely made me nostalgic of the times before Portugal became so immensely popular. A moment of saudade, if you will.
As for the housing stock, itâs not that surprising that it hasnât gone up by too much given that Portugalâs population has been shrinking in the same period. But the part of the housing stock available to residents has probably been shrinking even faster than the population. So from that POV it makes sense for the government to incentive more of the housing stock being converted back from Airbnbs to long-term rentals.
But blaming the GV makes little sense while simultaneously introducing the digital nomad visa which is likely to have a much larger adverse effect on the housing market for localsâŠ
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Not to mention folks on a d7. Itâs not like they donât buy housesâŠ
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The IMIDaily article is suggesting that those GV holders who invested in things other than real estate (e.g. funds) , might have to convert the investment to investments in PT cultural activity in order to renew. The article seems clear in this, but it makes no sense. For one, most of the funds wonât allow you to pull out your money and put it somewhere else.
âAs for renewal for those investors who qualified through routes other than real estate, Pinheiro points out that the PM and FM has indicated such individuals might convert their golden visas to other visa types. The PM mentioned residence permits for cultural activities specifically.â
Maybe I am misreading this?
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Here we have a little bit more explanation on the expected next steps with this governmentâs proposal:
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Another article that has some additional details⊠incl. one statement saying existing applications are grandfathered, except for residential golden visa extensions⊠However, it also says that non real estate investors need to move to other visa types - not sure what that means.
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