No, Olga. I am not comparing Golden Visa processing backlogs to backlogs caused by CPLP.
I am comparing processing of Golden Visa applications filed years ago with completed biometrics years ago to those much more recent Golden Visa applications that are being processed much more quickly under the 2025 changes.
Thank you, Vasily. The info is appreciated. Since none of us can know what will happen going forward all information, even opposing viewpoints, is valuable in identifying potential outcomes.
If they do increase to 10 years, wouldnāt existing investors want to give up and therefore cause capital outflow, and therefore, counterproductive to their original goal of getting FDI?
Well, I mentioned it before. GVs are always last. In was when PS ruled, and same now with PSD. Analyzing according to dates are inside the groups only. Somebody needs to pressure that as this group is comparatively small it makes more sense to deal with it first not last, especially taking significant investments into account. Where all those lawyers who happily collect our fees? Sending us stupid mails that nothing could be made and we need to wait?
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I do not see indicators that they continue to want those FDI, especially if we remember that they almost closed ARI program at all. And, new ARI has donation option also. You could not withdraw that))
No matter how analysis can be made. As long as CPLP exists, it means the influx is always a positive number. Consequently most of the resources are dedicated to new applications and soon it will be a point that even a new application take 5-7 years to be processed. Backlog cannot be solved while adding new application tremendously. Only way to solve backlog is to stop the influx immediately and keep solving backlog until it is solved. However, none of political parties wants to do it. Very unfortunateā¦
A lot of assumptions which are not true. First, priority is not new applications, but backlog (not ARI, unfortunately). Second, new applications are not increasing and not tremendous. They fell 80%. Third, they could not legally stop all applications without changing the law. Fourth, Portugal relies on and depends on foreign workforce, it needs some inflow to compensate for outflow.
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Again, priority is solving backlog. However backlog cannot be solved while adding new application.
Even they fell 80% (supposedly this number is correct), the current resources are already unable to handle the demand of renewals in a humanely time-ing manner. Adding new application into the current backlog of renewals is exactly like putting petrol into fire.
Everything is possible if there is a will. When there is a will, there is a way. In this case, unfortunately, there is no will.
Not completely true. It is like chicken and eggs. One could argue the opposite way. Due to the fact that the immigrants from South Asia and Africa and Brazil are able to accept a lower living standard and a lower salary, the local portuguese cannot compete with those people and have to find jobs in other countries. It causes the outflow. Same thing applies to the portugueses in Switzerland and Luxembourg where portuguese people often accept the jobs that locals do not take due to hard work/low salary.
While Iām sure there are edge cases where LLM answers are useful, I tend to agree with this sentiment in general.
The several walls of text generated by Claude that was posted in this thread seem to really miss the mark in many ways.
Not because the legal cases it references donāt exist (I havenāt checked one way or the other), but because it seems to just go on about the rights of Golden Visa holders being protected based on a bunch of cases where their rights to residence on similar conditions would be protected. But that says nothing about rights to citizenship (which is governed by a completely separate law), which is the question that most people are wondering about at the moment.
And then you have āstatementsā like this which makes zero sense at all:
Since when are PSD politicians worried about Golden Visa investors not spending enough time in Portugal? Any public statements to support this? Iād like to see them.
While you may argue that the output from LLMs may not be much worse than many ānewsā articles (Iām looking at you TPN), that doesnāt mean we should introduce more noise to the debate if we can avoid it.
On the other hand, using an LLM to find sources that would otherwise be hard to dig up can be totally fineābut please verify before posting. And as far as possible donāt copy/paste a wall of text, instead summarize and link to the original sources. If you do need to include a long output from an LLM, please hide it behind details tags like this:
[details="LLM output"]
LLM output goes here...
[/details]
Which results in output like this:
LLM output
LLM output goes hereā¦
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Has anyone heard from their lawyer about their take? It was a big driver for people to apply due to the 5-year rule change to include waiting, but now if it were to be extended, pending applicants are put in a tough spot of not knowing how to proceed from a strategy pov. Also how much does āgrandfatherā can cover may be another way to ask this question?
Not specific to Golden Visa but there is https://www.imidaily.com/europe/portugals-ad-coalition-wants-stricter-physical-presence-for-golden-visa-holders/
It suggests AD coalition wants to shift nationality pre-requisites from legal residence to effective presence. I.e. holding a card will not help if you donāt actually live in Portugal.
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Iām aware of the IMI Daily article. As far as I can tell the only primary source they reference is LeitĆ£oās brief comment thatās not at all specific enough to draw any conclusions from.
What Iām looking for is any primary source that backs up this narrative.
Yeah, I think itās better just delete it. Letās keep the forum for people arguining and ranting without any substance as before ā it is making it clearly a better place for everyone, isnāt it? On the side note, the posted contents was based on the point of view of one of the persons here who expressed an opinion that fundamental rights protection is based on a reasonable expectation of law applicability, and that was confirmed by the research engine.
āresearch engineā ā LLM that creates text output based on statistical probability and accepts no responsibility for accuracy. LLMs have their place but providing legal analysis on top of changing laws is not it.
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I asked my lawyers, and their opinion was pretty similar to Margaridaās above, although way less detailed.
Wait time now counts toward 5 year residency? - #1193 by Margarida.Torres
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If you donāt see any value in the words of your fellow posters, Iām not sure why you stay.
Additionally attacking the other users here in no way provides any justification for the LLM postings. Several people have asked for no more of those postings, or at least for them to be put behind a details link.
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Here is the nationality law: https://diariodarepublica.pt/dr/legislacao-consolidada/lei/1981-34536975
Naturalization is section 6.1
Nowhere does it guarantee right to naturalize with only 7 days per year in Portugal.
Yet, it is currently happenning, isnāt it?
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Honestly, the only reason I am following it is itās marginally easier to follow the news. Most of the discussions are completely clueless with a few exceptions as was mentioned in my previous posts. I heard about prejudice about LLMs from a few folks like yourself and already commented about double standards when it comes to the quality of the posted content. I am sorry you felt attacked.