This is always my advice.
If you are willing to throw away - as in, potentially lose entirely - several hundred thousand dollars and a fair bit of your time and effort on a “maybe”, then go for it. Otherwise, walk away.
I think the risks are higher than when I first issued such advice years ago, but the advice remains the same.
I speak this as someone who has had a permit in hand for several years now. I happen to have started with a decent understanding of the private equity space, a knack with understanding contract language, and 30 years of being in and out of Europe and thus having some understanding of the place.
I will continue with the process because I have my cards in hand and am well along, and have been awfully fortunate in previous choices. If I were to start now from cold, knowing what I know? It’s a toss-up at best, and probably 35/65 against. It’s not just the uncertainties of the process. Back when, there were only a few GV firms involved, and it was fairly obvious to me who the flim-flam funds and huckster firms were… and even then I count myself fortunate. Now, the space is so crowded that my head spins. I’d probably take three looks at it, decide I couldn’t possibly find a path through it in which I could have real confidence, and consider other options. But of course that’s also me looking back with several years of hard won knowledge, as attested to by this board; wide-eyed innocence got me involved back then despite the uncertainties, and it might still apply now.
You are talking about a 10-year horizon. That is a LONG, LONG, LONG time. Long enough for the world to change. Maybe having the residency permit, or the passport, will be useful - and maybe it won’t be worth the piece of paper it’s written on to you by then. Maybe the EU turns into the US and starts kicking people out, invalidating permits “cuz you’re undesirable”, whatever. Or maybe you won’t want to leave, or won’t be able to. Or EURUSD will be at 2.25. Then what?
I get that people here are upset about the delays and constant threat of changes. I took all this as part of the risks when I started - that it could all go pear-shaped - and that I’ve come so far I take as 100% win. Even so, I am still disturbed at the pain so many are suffering, and I wonder how well I would do if it were to have hit me, or if I would be walking away. It’s hard to know these things, but it’s good to at least look inside yourself and think about it.
My advice would be to find a way to get a residence permit, any residence permit. There are several, and not all are so bad as all that. Forget about that path to citizenship; let it resolve itself. Consider a caribbean CBI or maybe an easier-to-get third-party like Panama for that. Take concrete steps like EU-based investments (since you are interested in Europe as a destination) or a swiss money manager to start hedging offshore risk. Buy offshore property that interests you. Spend the years looking for a place you want to be.
If you can afford PGV, ok, but don’t view it as certain or any panacea. The Portuguese immigration system is overloaded and broken, and there are no easy fixes, and all promises you’re hearing are worth the paper they’re written on.
(I know the swiss-money-manager is cliche - but there really is something to be said for it. It’s not about secrecy. It’s about having an offshore banking relationship with an individual - your named banker - that is secure and dependable, such that if SHTF, you have someone to call who has money to disburse to you without having to deal with KYC. It doesn’t have to be swiss, that’s just the standard easy-button. Yes you pay for the privilege - it’s not cheap - but it matters in subtle ways.
I warn you all. In the world that was, we all became used to “easy” and “online”, minimizing transaction costs and valuing simplicity. In the world that is coming, I think that’s going to start disappearing, relationships are going to start to matter again, and those relationships are never free… and you might end up regretting not having paid for them before you needed them. I hope I am wrong.)