How many GV seekers expected in 2024 - impact on backlog

Good afternoon everyone,

Does anyone have any data on how many GV seekers are expected in 2024 please ?

I’m new here but i was lucky enough to exchange with a few among you about the various investment options available to GV seekers like me, I gather a little patience might be good, though its my understanding that there is a massive back-log for applications. So i’m wondering, is this back-log expected to grow exponentially or remain the same from expected new-comers?

Best regards !

PS: apologies if this was recently discussed elsewhere or evidently available data.

I suspect the backlog grows exponentially every day.
I saw some calculations here that estimated approx. 25 years to process all existing applications, and that was a few months ago. Knowing that one month is processed within approx. 1 year, that means an estimated 30-32 years to process the existing backlog of all applications.
As a local friend of mine says: “Welcome to Portugal…”

In the absence of some totally anti-pattern ‘white swan’ event on the part of AIMA - I would seriously recommend looking elsewhere. And I am one of the ‘optimists’ here by the way on this forum :neutral_face:

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With the intention of the government at this moment, it is going to take 100-200 years to process the backlog. Even longer. It depends 100% on their intention and purpose. With 50k Ukrainian, they could provide them all the residencies within 1 week, because they wanted to use the public budget on this task. Just keep in mind that it could take at least 10 years to receive passport if all goes your way.

With the change in investment rules, and the change to NHR, I suspect the volume of new applications now will drop significantly. That said, it’s going to take a long time to process the backlog that already exists.

I migrated from Canada to the UK about 20 years ago, and am now trying to make the move to Portugal.

What I’ve learned from both experiences is countries want your investment money, but don’t necessarily want you. Portugal already has my house investment, all their IMT taxes, etc. - so no rush to deliver on their side of the GV deal.

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I don’t want to assume the Portuguese are quite so Machiavellian. But in addition to what you said,
(1) Portugal already pulled the NHR rug, and many people will be unnecessarily volunteering themselves as tax residents in 2023 & 2024, in order to hold on to the NHR status for the next 10 years.
(2) They only need to close the 7-day-per-year naturalisation loophole by passing laws, issuing regulations, or simply change the interpretation of laws/regulations at AIMA when one applies for citizenship by naturalisation. For example, they can require one to live in Portugal for at least 183 days or 270 days per year for at least 5 consecutive years, in order to naturalise. Then all the GV holders would have to (a) physically move & pay PT taxes in order to naturalise, or (b) pay AIMA ~12.5k EUR every 5 years to keep renewing the very expensive PR GV, or ~5k EUR every 2 years to keep renewing the equally expensive GV.
(3) Under political pressures (long lines at the public hospitals, teachers on strike), they can also pass new laws to restrict new immigrants’ access to cheap public healthcare and education.
Since they are not really worried about attracting new GV investors anymore, they don’t have to care if existing GV investors are unhappy that things we ASSUMED are no longer there.

For people already with a decent passport (that gets 90-day visa free travel to the Schengen area), it makes much more sense to just wait until retirement (or whenever ready to move) and get the retiree/passive income visa instead. Portugal+Italy+Greece+Spain and France and even Ireland will likely always have some sort of retiree/passive income visa around. These are a lot cheaper and get you inside the country in less than 6 months most of the time.

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Hahahah i’m both grateful for everyone’s swift replies and aware that there are no emojis capable of expressing the level of gut-kick i’m feeling from reading all your replies hahah. But for the sake of utterly over-sharing, my wife and are hoping to have kids to soon, and to be clear, even though the passport w/could take 10 years, we would still be able to settle in Lisbon within the next 6 years hypothetically, and for them to school there, regardless of the how long the backlog blocks the actual passport, correct ?? or do i need to have a word with my wife about a D7 down the line ?

Best !

Hi and thank you for you reply !

Can i ask exactly how long ago your bank account opening and investment were made ?

Regards

I hate to be the bearer of bad news , but….

https://diariodarepublica.pt/dr/detalhe/despacho/1668-2023-206847177

In Portugal the only thing that arrives with amazing punctuality is the bank account administration collection, the collection invoice from the legal staff and the tax advice…everything else is eternal in their responses

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If you want to move to PT dont even bother with the GV unless you arent going to spend most of the year in the place you live…but with school aged kids most people are gonna be at home for the school year, I assume.

GV is practically dead at this point for new entrants, with the only hope remaining for the existing holders that renewals somehow will continue to be automatic or rely on ‘extended validity’ Despachos in case the renewals fail.
As I mentioned, my recommendation is to look for a non-GV permit in Portugal if that’s suitable in your personal case, or simply consider some other place in the world for your RBI/CBI.

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yes of course the idea would be to be with them, but i was curious about what options i would have once the process is started. I have no immediate plans to be there, but if we did at some point ‘within the next 10 years’ i wanted to clarify our options.

If we were adamant on settling in portugal in the coming years, i understand your point fully ok. We’re keeping it open for now, with no real rush or plan but i do want to have that option for my wife and kids down the line though. thanks :wink:

@Gabriel-dilanico The writing is on the wall and everyone is saying essentially the same thing and you aren’t getting the message. The GV exists in name only, and even that isn’t true. Look elsewhere.

I’m less pessimistic than many here, because there’s no real good alternative to the pgv, but there’s definitely a lot to be concerned about and your timeline and costs are huge question marks

That said, I wouldn’t say the golden visa is dead by any means. Maybe you can say that in a year if aima never resumes approvals, but we’re not there yet

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When you say ‘that option’ - what option?
I think there is a bit too much focus on the “how” instead of “what”.
What do you really want to achieve by your RBI/CBI action plan?
For me personally GV was simply a potentially useful bonus on top of my property purchase. But everyone’s different, you mentioned ‘options’ for your family, what’s that?

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If you have 10 years ahead for this battle, just go for it. I believe at least by year 10th you will have GV ready in hand. If lucky, then will be able to get passport by that time.

Just do not invest then expect 1-3 years things go your way. But 10 years target will do!

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10 years seems about right. But the time isn’t the only consideration. I was motivated originally to get the GV to jump-start retirement planning. If the GV is a 10 year process, it makes more sense to wait 5 years and get a D7 or some similar visa and the end result will be the same after 10 years.

But another consideration is that there are a mountain of countries where you can move and get citizenship after 10 years without having to make a risky investment of your life savings. And in the interim you don’t get constantly reminded how as a GV applicant you are unwelcome in the host country. Thus, my assertion that Portugal isn’t worth it anymore.

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Please specify the names of countries? I cannot see any country in the Schengen Zone that offers the same benefit like Portugal GV.

Things change. So does the D7. No one can guarantee that in 5 years from now there will still be D7. But I agree that D7 is very cost effective.