I fully agree that there is definitely a decent amount of risk in both options. The question for me is where is the risk greater. Although I have always had (and still maintain) doubts on which route is better, I still lean towards the fund option (assuming I can find one that makes me somewhat comfortable, which is a big âifâ).
Basic reason is that I can limit my costs to exactly EUR 350k in capital, plus some reasonable expenses. Hopefully I get that back after somewhere between six and ten years, and if thereâs a return, I consider that a bonus. Again, the key is whether I can find a fund that I have enough confidence in to invest. I think I have found a couple, but still not 100% sure. Unfortunately, you can diligence the hell out of these things, and youâre still not going to know. And even if you got comfortable on the diligence, and it all looked good, itâs still an investment with all the risks, etc. This is definitely not like investing in US listed mutual funds with broker analysis, Morningstar ratings, etc.
As for real estate, thereâs no way Iâm finding a decent piece of real estate for EUR 350k. Anything I find for that price is probably worth less than EUR 300k (possibly way less than that) with a nice little premium added to appeal to the GV investors. So maybe I scour hard (which is going to take a hell of a long time, and very, very difficult to do from abroad) and find something for around EUR 400k (just as a hypothetical). Then there is a good chance that youâll have to pour more into refurbishment, furnishings, etc. (another EUR 50k perhaps?). And then there are the notary costs, taxes, management fees, upkeep, etc., etc., etc. And then what if there are structural problems down the road requiring more? Yes, itâs a tangible asset, and is indeed unlikely to lose all of its value, but it could also be a money pit, and youâll never be able to fully recoup your investment. All in all, I am very, very skeptical of the ability of a foreigner to successfully invest in real estate unless he/she is on the ground and knows the market well.
I absolutely, 100% agree that if there are other options (D7, or if you have another way of getting EU citizenship), then I would NOT pursue the GV. Unfortunately for me, I may not have other options for personal reasons.