Is this really legit though? Of course itās actually gonna be best-case scenario.
Has anybody found the actual bill that the Government approved on Monday in the Council of Ministers? I donāt mean the Chega proposal noted above. I mean the real bill from the AD party in (minority) power.
Our GV advisor says āAt this stage, the proposal has not been made publicly available, so our understanding is based solely on information reported in the media.ā Iāve also read media reports saying all theyāve got is Govāt briefings but not an actual document.
So when I read news articles like this, where are they getting this from?? Just rumours and leaks?
āGolden visasā and highly qualified people without restrictions on family reunification, Publico, 24-June 2025
The Government wants to impose restrictions on family reunification, through changes to the law that have to be approved by Parliament, but these exclude three types of immigrants: those who have the European Union blue card (for highly qualified professionals outside the EU), those who have āgolden visasā and those who have a residence permit as a highly qualified professional will be left out of the changes and will not have restrictions, neither on minimum time nor on the ages of family members to bring them.
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Itās Ai, so who knows. At this stage, everyone is guessing, including Ai.
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I just spoke with my lawyer, Prime Legal. Although nothing is finalized yet, there is no proposed changes to the 7 days/year requirement for GV investors, nor to change the language requirement from A2.
As of now.
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Again, at a risk of speculation, my take is that newly elected parties are trying to appeal to their voting base. There is plenty of popular discontent in Portugal with the immigration policies of the past several years which resulted in more than 15% of population being immigrants. The country simply is not able to integrate them, and hence the rise of popularism. Itās the same story all across Europe and the U.S. You can view it as ābullyingā.
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Yes, I also believe we are an afterthought (or complete lack of thought!), a casualty of anger primarily directed at CLPL and MI arrivals.
But Portugal is a poor country in desperate need of foreign investment. So if they really do this, and send an unmistakable message that Portugal doesnāt honor its commitments to investors, I canāt imagine good things will happen.
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Great. Here is a speculation of mine, as mentioned in the previous post.
The longer the period lasts between the proposal and the enforcement, the more people will leave or quit PT as a residency destination, no matter how much contribution they made to Portuguese society.
So before the final consequence hatch,just let the bullets fly for a while.
Legal advice:
Regarding the announcement of the Portuguese Governmentās new legislative proposals on nationality and immigration made on Monday, June 23, 2025āparticularly concerning the ongoing legislative process and the matters of renewals and nationalityāwe would like to share our perspective and guidance on the announced developments and next steps. A more in-depth analysis will follow once the final version of the amendments is approved.
- Ongoing legislative process ā no final decision yet!
The proposals presented by the Government do not yet carry the force of law. They represent a set of measures that must still be discussed and approved by the Portuguese Parliament, and subsequently promulgated by the President of the Republic. Until this legislative process is completed, any amendments to the Nationality Law remain open and subject to parliamentary negotiation, especially considering that the most voted party in the last elections does not hold a parliamentary majority and will therefore require the support of other parties to pass any changes.
- Confidence in the protection of acquired rights and legitimate expectations of investors
We are confident that any legislative changes that may be approved will respect the principles of legal certainty and the protection of investorsā legitimate expectations. In particular, we believe that a transitional or exceptional regime will be established for Golden Visa holders, safeguarding their access to nationality under the legal framework in force at the time their residence permit was granted. Should this not be the case, we firmly believe that the courts will uphold the legitimate expectations of investorsāparticularly with regard to eligibility timelinesāand will serve as a critical safeguard for their rights.
- Ongoing nationality applications
Regardless of future changes, all individuals who have already submitted their nationality applications are protected. Any potential amendments will not apply retroactively to cases that have already been filed.
- Extension of residence permits
The Government has already confirmed a further extension of the validity of residence permits until October 15, 2025, allowing for the regularization of all pending cases. A simplified digital platform is also planned to ensure the continued legal status of Golden Visa holders during this period.
We remain fully committed to defending the legitimate interests of our clients. Together with key industry stakeholders, we are closely monitoring this matter and will keep all our clients informed in a timely and transparent manner.
We reiterate our commitment to protecting our clientĀ“s interests and our confidence in the strength and integrity of the rule of law in Portugal.
Over the years, the Golden Visa program has undergone several adjustmentsāparticularly regarding its requirementsāand we understand that maintaining clarity, calm, and client confidence is essential to ensuring their interests are protected in the best possible way. We also know that, as is often the case, these processes tend to begin with the worst-case scenarios in view, though ultimately justice and good sense have consistently prevailed.
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What a shit show I have found myself inā¦ Biggest mistake of my life was going for Portugal GV.
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āā¦ at the time their residence permit was grantedā is essentially garbage due to the years-long delay between when the investment was made and the application first submitted (which is the real point when the expectations were established) and the point at which the permit is finally granted. Iām 3 years into waiting on pre-approval myself at this point. But I guess we will see.
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I found this intersting:
Hereās an overview of how much the Portugal Golden Visa program has raised in investment since 2020, based on the latest available data:
Golden Visa Investment by Year
- 2020 Portugal received ā¬646.7 million from Golden Visa investments, predominantly (ā¬588 million) through real estate and the remainder (ā¬58 million) via capital transfers.
- 2021 Investments totaled approximately ā¬460 million, with over ā¬409 million coming from real estate.
- 2022 By the end of September 2022, around ā¬465 million had been raised from 926 investors. That first nine-month total already surpassed the full-year figure from 2021. (Annual 2022 estimates likely exceeded ā¬600 million when extrapolated.)
- 2023 While specific 2023 Golden Visa investment totals arenāt broken out by year, the overall program had attracted approximately ā¬7.318 billion since its inception by the end of 2023. Given earlier totals (2012ā2021 accounted for ~ā¬5.8 B), this suggests 2022ā2023 contributed roughly:
- ā¬1.518 billion over those two years
Cumulative Total Since January 1, 2020
| Year | Investment (ā¬ million) |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 646.7 |
| 2021 | ~460 |
| 2022ā2023* | ~1,518 |
| Total | ~2,625 |
*Estimated by subtracting pre-2020 investment (through 2021) from the post-2023 total.
In summary, since the start of 2020, the Portugal Golden Visa program has raised approximately ā¬2.6 billion in investment, spanning real estate purchases, capital transfers, fund subscriptions, and cultural heritage contributions.
https://www.portugal-golden-visa.pt/statistics?utm_source=chatgpt.com
And itās about to go to zero if they pass this new law!
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I checked the population growth from 2001 to 2025 and it barely changed. There is a net increase of 57,507 people, which is pretty negligible .
For the same period (2001-2025) average age of the population grew from 36.7 to 46.9 years. To compound the effect , Fertility rates went down and going further down. Fertility replacement rate as it currently stands at 1.4 (2.1 is the replacement rate for stable population ) .
In a broader economic sense immigration is good for this aging country, Which is needed to pay for the benefits of aging population. Programs like GV are particularly have an added advantage as this investor class gets much needed capital and replenish the depleting labor pool (if they choose to move in and work or their offspring) . While economics is secular and logical politics are not, particularly the politics of Immigration.
As the immigration adds to a country GDP over all they also stress the local market for housing and other sectors. All a government need to do is, increase the supply of housing and create rite incentives (easier said than done) . If you want to know the affects of aging population on economy, look at Japan (they opened up the country too late)
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To me the solution is to grandfather existing ARI applicants to 5 years as was the bargain. Any new GV applicants it is 10 years, but if they want to utilize 5 years path there is mandatory contribution of 200k to support food and housing initiatives. This is in addition to 500k investment fund at least 25% of which must invest in real estate supporting local populations (not tourism). For example, apartments which must benefit exclusively Portuguese citizens and with maximum rental of 650 euros per month with annual increases, for at least 10 years. Things like this will benefit the local populations and help people understand how foreign investment directly helps them.
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Thanks for sharing the data. It can be seen clearly that in 2023 where real estate option was removed there was no significant increment at all. It is opposite to what has been told by promoters that people were rushing to apply in the last minute. The truth is that there is a slight increment but 10-20% max.
All past SEF approval data refers to final approval, whose investments were made 1-2 years ago.
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Yeah itās misleading, supposedly there is currently a backlog of 50,000 GV applicants so there must have been an explosion of investment that is not accounted for in the approval numbers
ā¦or 3 or 4 years before final approval 
So huge - and variable! - lag between āmoney flows into Portugalā and being recorded as a SEF/AIMA GV approval in a given year.
Without a doubt, the cash drying up from this change would hurt the prospects of the country. One can only imagine the industry lawyers are attempting to impress this point upon parliament at the momentā¦