What's the potential impact of the 2025 Portuguese election on the Golden Visa program and pathway to citizenship?

Thank you for your message. I believe that you have done everything I would advise to grant the Portuguese Citizenship. Please feel free to contact me directly.

It’s inevitable that the program will eventually come to an end, but if Portugal decides to terminate it, the process could drag on for several years due to the country’s notorious bureaucratic inefficiencies. Portugal is in dire need of foreign capital. The business elite are well aware that no one is willing to pay over €500,000 for aging properties or to invest in stagnant local funds.

In my view, the Golden Visa program is likely to be extended for another three to five years, simply because Portugal has few other reliable sources of foreign income outside of EU funds. The country’s economic situation is fragile, and this stream of investment is critical to keeping things afloat.Portugal and portuguise people are poor and almost 50 plus years they couldnt establish a self reliant economy.

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Does the advice to take the A2 exam now apply even if I haven’t yet received my golden visa yet? i just got scheduled for biometrics, so it might still be a while. or is my case possibly stronger if I take it after receiving the visa? Thanks btw!!

The A2 doesn’t expire if you pass, so the sooner you get it out of the way the better

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What’s the value of that?

If the law changes - your A2 certificate isn’t going to help you, is it? Especially if you are taking the online Portugese class route instead of the actual test.

I’d argue that it’s not evident at all everyone should rush 5+ years before citizenship to take a course just because one lawyers suggested to act swiftly in general (likely to get himself some additional business and credibility from this community).

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Thanks @goncalomendesleal
Your view aligns with the advice I received from a different law firm, so it’s useful to see that reaffirmed.

Knowing Portuguese earlier shows you’re taking Portugal seriously

More practically, you get it out of the way so you don’t stress about it. I don’t know that it’s actually helpful for citizenship in any more specific way. Also then you know enough Portuguese to get by

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If you read and digest the OP’s original post then you will see that getting the A2 language certificate now will help build your body of evidence that you were going to apply for citizenship based on the regulations and expectations in force when you began your process which is a legal argument that carries weight in Portugal if the rules change and we are not grandfathered in anyway under the existing criteria. It’s a step to de-risk an unknown future.

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This is just a news announcement not legislation but it shows the direction they are attempting:

https://archive.is/36Oa6

Mais prazo para a cidadania
O primeiro-ministro avisou ainda que vai levar adiante o projeto “de aumentar a exigĂȘncia na atribuição da nacionalidade portuguesa". Pelas regras atuais, o imigrante que residir legalmente por pelo menos cinco anos em Portugal pode requisitar a nacionalidade portuguesa. Pelo que jĂĄ indicaram integrantes do Governo de Montenegro, a ideia Ă© que esse prazo aumente para atĂ© 10 anos.

More time for citizenship
The Prime Minister also warned that he will go ahead with the project “to increase the requirements for granting Portuguese nationality”. Under the current rules, immigrants who have resided legally in Portugal for at least five years can apply for Portuguese nationality. According to members of Montenegro’s government, the idea is to increase this period to up to 10 years.

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EU says they won’t interfere if Portugal changes nationality law: UE promete não interferir na alteração da lei da nacionalidade dos estados-membros – Observador

Dr. Leal,

Thank you for coming to this forum to offer your views. Would like to clarify regarding a few points you made:

  1. Doesn’t this implicitly acknowledge that a previously submitted ARI application and continued renewal, by itself, may not be considered sufficient to avoid falling victim to a lengthened naturalization timeframe, and instead to qualify for citizenship application on the original 5-year timeframe?

  2. Is it your position that by itself, the ARI application and its continued maintenance through the five-year mark is insufficient to demonstrate the ties necessary for citizenship? Or is this simply a recommendation for those who wish to be extra careful?

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As the law for portuguese nationality is structured with requirement to show ties with the country and currently the language certificate is considerred to be a proof of those ties, we are talking here about the case when Portugal might require more connection to the country during all those n years counted toward citizenship. There were only some hints about that, nothing directly said. In that case, here are ideas that earlier certificate may show such ties from the beginning. Well, it looks like preparing to the court case. May work, who knows?
Investment was never considerred as a connection. It was a condition to get the permit, nothing more.

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I think that is true for minors. The requirement for “ties” for adults naturalizing based on 5 years residence was apparently removed in 2006 Portuguese Citizenship application after 5 years of Golden Visa - #213 by cj807
Of course they can add it back, but then is that an unconstitutional retroactive change or not?

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Nope, my opinion is nothing regarding increasing requirements to citizenship is retroactive if applied to those who had not applied yet to citizenship. Residence permit is a residence permit, you did investment to get the residence. GV holders continue to have the right to apply for citizenship just later or with more ties. It is like increasing requirements to driving license or practicing law or medicine. You can not claim that you have bot a car hoping for simpler rules, on enterred the university expecting simpler rules to get a licence to practice.

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That’s certainly one interpretation. I mean in theory they’re free to make citizenship much less attractive by introducing worldwide taxation of citizens, conscription of citizens, forbidding dual citizenship etc. I guess none of those changes are retroactive but if they made all those changes much fewer people would want to naturalize in Portugal lol.

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It is probably what they want, no? That much fewer people want to naturalise now.

P.S. BTW, I am not at all say that early portuguese certificate will help or useful. I just explain the logic of a lawer. It is step to decrease the risk in his opinion and early preparation to a lawsuit.

Yes but changes like taxing citizens abroad, conscription or forbidding dual citizenship would also hurt native Portuguese abroad, which is a big group of voters, so they probably won’t do that.

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Rather than attempting to change naturalization requirements, a change that will invite constitutional challenge, negatively affect investment and cause much backlash, a better strategy would be to create a new category of permanent residence (one that does not grant a right to citizenship) that is faster, easier and cheaper to access. Many people would gladly accept this permanent residence instead of citizenship, and it would be a win-win for almost everyone involved.

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IMHO - Which is why it’s very unlikely that they’d drastically change the naturalization process for investors.

They are smart(greedy) enough to understand the value we bring and they understand very well that we are not doing it just for a permanent residency card.

Worst case - they’d increase it to 7-10 years(even 10 is unlikely to expect for one to keep 500k invested), to ensure we keep our money, but they wouldn’t introduce an extended physical presence in the country.

But what do I know, I am trying to be rational about it.

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For comparison, Spain had a successful GV program ( measured by raw numbers) despite a 10 year timeline to naturalisation.
It also had faster processing which I think is the major drawback with PGV.