What's the potential impact of the 2025 Portuguese election on the Golden Visa program and pathway to citizenship?

Can someone state me please what is the immigration issues according to Chega and others? How will this new law solve all these issues?

Stranglin the goose that layeth the golden eggs eh

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More like destroying the bridge before crossing is much appropriate ( economy is garbage,social services are at medicore level,unemployment high stagnant salaries despite high costs of living…and those incompetents cut :scissors: foreign investors ,now entirely depends on Brussels where germans complaing about southern europe…

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The president today said he thinks some of the citizenship and immigration proposals might be unconstitutional, so will likely be referred to the constitutional court

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However, he also stated that if “…there are no doubts about its constitutionality, no risks (of it being interpreted differently by different regional courts), no associated problems, then I won’t send it (to the Constitutional Court), I will promote it”.

We will just have to see what is really going to be in this bill. Happy 4th of July!.. :slight_smile:

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I wouldn’t get that over the moon just yet, the only unconstitutional parts are likely the CHEGA revocation of citizenship clauses along with family reunification. Nothing about the 7/10 year wait time unfortunately.

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Well, it seems clear that there are multiple aspects that the President has concerns about. There’s nothing obviously unconstitutional about changing the wait time going forward, but the issue for most of us is whether it’s constitutional to change the wait time midstream. When the ARI program was nearly eliminated a few years ago, the retroactivity of the proposal was one of the big sticking points in the constitutional court.

Went through some game theory and I see the most likely outcome as legislation that passes sometime later this year or early 2026 at the latest. This allows time for negotiations, eases pressure on current applicants, yet allows all the big parties to score political points ahead of local elections. This, of course, may change based on a constitutional review (30-50% chance), but perhaps they’ll account for that with the legislation they submit in order to avoid the Constitutional Court.

I found greater than 70% probability that Golden Visas will receive preferential treatment versus a 10-year general residency. Most likely 7-8 years for GV. Other highly probable changes to GV program would include increasing investment threshold, increasing physical presence to 14-21 days per year, and A2 or higher language requirement with a mandatory civics test.

This is the type of compromise that allows AD to tout their focus on economics, Chega to get the immigration reform they desire along with carveouts and improvements for GV investment, and PS can oppose in a way that allows them to take up these issues down the road.

It’s all speculation in the end, but it seems highly unlikely it’ll be all-or-nothing for GV holders.

So Chega extends time with a “carve out” of “only 8 years” for GV. This gives PS plenty of time to be voted back in campaigning against GV and “selling citizenship” and they can add a 6 month/year residence requirement for citizenship. Thus dragging investors on with a few more years of false hope before killing the GV in a 1-2 blow that extracts maximum investor money while denying maximum investor citizenship.

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Notes from the short meeting between André and Luís today 3-July…

  • The Chega leader met with Luís Montenegro at the Prime Minister’s official residence in São Bento. The meeting lasted just over half an hour.
  • “What I can say now, at this time, is that we have a principle of understanding regarding the regulation of immigration, regarding restrictions on obtaining nationality, which I think will be very, very positive for the country ,” he [Ventura] said.
  • Ventura indicated that the parliamentary leaders and the directors of Chega and PSD “will work during the night ” to reach “in the morning a possible understanding that does not necessarily involve any other party and that can guarantee a majority in parliament”.
    “So that tomorrow [Friday], at the time of the debate, there will be a broad understanding on the conclusion of the legislative process, both in terms of immigration and nationality, and in terms of IRS”, he added.
  • Regarding changes to the nationality law and the rules for the entry of immigrants, the Chega leader considered that “there are matters on which the majority that supports the Government will probably be willing to give in” …
    “We will outline these proposals with the guarantee, which I also gave to the Prime Minister, if necessary in writing, ideally it does not have to be, but if necessary in writing, that these aspects will be a commitment of the two parties, which if they come down to the specialty, whether with a vote in favor or with a vote down, without a vote, will be worked on within the framework that was defined here”, he indicated.

https://www.dn.pt/política/ventura-revela-princípio-de-entendimento-com-montenegro-sobre-nacionalidade-imigração-e-irs

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Interesting perspective on Portugal Redirecting...

…and from the PS, if they matter in this debate (?)

  • According to its leader [José Luís Carneiro], the PS advocates improving the legislative instruments in question because “it cannot be in favour of matters that call the Constitution into question.”
    I refer, in particular, to the loss of nationality and its retroactivity. I am also referring to family reunification…"

https://www.dn.pt/política/psd-recusa-sugestão-do-ps-e-leva-já-a-votos-diplomas-do-governo-sobre-imigração

Shameful that AD is willing to work with Chega

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They talk all cocky now, but when it comes to reality and Brussels, they turn into scared little kittens. Look at what they used to say about Trump and Meloni—at the end of the day, what happened? Portugal is a poor and weak country. Its entire economy depends on foreigners, and they can’t afford to scare them off. Governments—whether left or right—have always sided with the elites. Personally, I wouldn’t worry. Don’t take Chega or the right-wingers too seriously.

The changes you’re suggesting to the residency requirement for GV would be changes to the GV regime though, which isn’t on the table currently. Additionally, it would almost certainly only apply to new applicants as it would clearly be retroactive. An increase to 21 days would also have a significant negative impact on future applications, as it is crossing in to the realm of unworkable for applicants who don’t have sufficient annual leave to meet the requirement.

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If they can push through the suggested citizenship change then obviously the protections against retroactive changes aren’t as strong as advertised.

Maybe they could say 7 days / year was fine in the past but starting 2027 you must spend 21 days / year and argue that’s not retroactive because it only affects future years.

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You need to look back to see what happened to the Mais Habitação law to understand why this is my view. The law originally proposed included retroactive changes to the GV regime, including for existing GV holders. It became very apparent that was retroactive and would be unconstitutional, and ultimately the changes that they passed only applied to new applicants, and only came in to force after the law was passed.

It appears to be debatable whether or a change to the citizenship law constitutes a retroactive change to those who haven’t yet applied for citizenship but hold residence cards / have applied for residence. Slightly different scenarios. As it stands, no changes to the GV residence requirements have been proposed.

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I wouldn’t say “entire economy depends on foreigners”. I would say that it is better to have poor foreigners as a cheap workforce and it is also better to have rich foreigners to pump money into economy.

The poor foreigners need Portugal more than Portugal need them. An Indian fruit seller, a pakistani Uber driver, a Bangladesh Glovo delivery, a brazilien João woking in factory, a angola Joana woking in supermarket… all these people are going to find a same job in France Germany Sweden Netherland…? To be realistic, with their current qualification & ability, chance to get a visa in those countries is close to zero. If they had found a better alternative than Portugal, they could have left Portugal long time ago. Why would they have to live their lives under expired permits for years? The only way for them to go to a richer country is to stay in Portugal until they get the portuguese passport.

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You’re right, but unfortunately, most local Portuguese go abroad to earn a living, and the majority of those left behind are elderly pensioners. So who is going to keep the city clean and keep businesses running as usual? They actually need all the foreigners (including wealthy EU citizens) to keep things going.

Since 1974, Portugal lost all its income streams due to the loss of its colonies, and honestly, there hasn’t been much real improvement in the lives of ordinary people compared to Spain or even Cyprus. Many people seem to be working, but they’re not really doing much.

Long story short, I don’t expect them to do anything about it, so I’m not worried.Their racist behavior is amusing me as they need my labour and money .

Does anyone know when the parliamentary session ends and is there a live coverage of it?

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