It doesn’t matter to us whether the queue shrinks for those who started their citizenship waiting period after us — that will not help our waiting time.
Our waiting time is only affected by those who started their citizenship waiting period before us. The only way the new law would reduce the queue is if (a) it forcibly disqualifies people by adding some unreasonable further requirement, in which case we ourselves may also be at risk; or (b) significant numbers of applicants quit out of frustration or because they found a better deal elsewhere, in which case we may also quit.
Are you trying to apply logic to Portuguese bureaucracy? That will only drive you mad
Indeed any excuse to go slow on application processing “due to legislative uncertainty” has been fair game for SEF/AIMA in the past… be that Mais Habitação, removing the real estate GV option, counting or not counting days since application, etc.
I keep wondering what happens if the Portuguese government really does extend the citizenship timeline to 10 years. We committed to a 5-8 year investment — does that automatically become 10 years too? And what about the other rules, like the 14-day stay every two years or the residency card renewals every two years — would those change as well?
The whole situation feels so uncertain. There are no clear answers, and it makes it hard to make sense of things. Plus, who’s to say that in another five years they won’t push it out again to 15 years?
The extension could become a problem for some funds. While I imagine most managers would be happy for the extension, some of the participants may not, especially those who have already gotten citizenship or permanent residency. We’ll have to see how this all plays out.
It will be interesting to see what happens when a group of people (me included) has decided to drop out of the process and wants their money back, as opposed to people who want to continue with the process. Many funds may not even have enough time even with the permitted extensions. Funds may need to figure out how to transition investments into new fund vehicles for those who want to stay on.
So far, they have not touched the subject as they spent the day quarrelling over the fires, with Chega apparently on a mission to disparage both PS and PSD in whichever way possible.
Which may be a good sign for us, as it may indicate that Chega got disappointed that their ‘collaboration’ with PSD did not give them an easy and early win with the Foreigners Law. And perhaps after the Court returned the law back to the Parliament, some disagreements emerged between Chega and PSD as to how to amend the said law.
These are all my speculations of course, but I doubt that Chega would be openly and personally attacking PSD bench on the very first day after recess, if they had an ongoing collusion with them on the Foreigners Law.
My understanding is that if the “worst case” happens (GV applicants are not “safeguarded”, residency requirement for citizenship extended to 10 years) that we could divest after getting our permanent residency (the GV program apparently has a special, dedicated PR). Keep in mind that currently we can apply for citizenship 5 years after our GV application is submitted, but that for permanent residency, we need to wait until 5 years after the issue date of the first residency card.
For me, if AIMA really works through their backlog as quickly as they promise, this could be “only” one additional year. (I submitted my application in April 2025 and my lawyer reports seeing some improvement in processing time.) People before me who have waited YEARS for their initial residency card may be forced to maintain an investment for much longer than me.
Here’s my current best-case hopeful scenario (if the GV is completely excluded from the immigration changes or if people who have an application under analysis are safeguarded from the changes):
apr 2025 - application under analysis
apr 2026 - initial residency card issued (yes, this is optimistic)
apr 2030 - apply for citizenship
apr 2031 - citizenship approved, divest from funds
Here’s my current understanding of the timeline if everything winds up NOT in my favor:
If the worst case shakes out, I wonder if the people with long delays in the issuance of their initial residency card would have a decent basis for a lawsuit. It’s my understanding that AIMA has a legal requirement to process in 90 days and there’s a pretty clear material loss from being forced to maintain the investment resulting from AIMA’s failure to meet their deadlines.
To riff on @tommigun’s good points, I think we should also keep in mind that Andre Ventura and Chega have their goals set on being the majority party and displacing PSD as the main right wing party, so (counterintuitively) they have an interest in the immigration and nationality laws not actually being reformed just yet.
For starters, Portugal’s “failed” immigration system is one of Chega’s most salient issues. It gets people out to vote for them. If there is a sense that PSD has fixed things, and that Chega made compromises on their more hardline positions to support it, it takes the heat out of an issue that has helped Chega go from 1 seat in 2019 to 60 seats in 2025.
Also, Ventura has just announced his run for the presidency. Those elections are in January. PSD failing to adequately reform immigration gives him something to rant about for that campaign (same as when Trump told Republicans to not support Biden’s belated attempts to close the southern border in the lead up to the 2024 election).
Chega gains votes from the appearance of a permanent crisis during which major parties appear to fail, and arguably doesn’t gain much by acting like a sensible junior partner. It’s a risky political calculus that all populists make, because they can end up looking like spoilers, not serious about governing. But Ventura might decide to throw the dice one more time to see if he and Chega can actually gain more, or even win, in the next election.
Open end funds are the logical option,I wouldn’t invest in closed end ones as time period/extensions limited especially portuguise lack of liquidity and management.
I think @Mr.E meant naturalisation processing, not residency processing. Article 6.1 referred to is the article of the nationality law which deals with citizenship by naturalisation. I’ve heard the same thing from my lawyers, that IRN appears to be sitting on applications filed since the June announcement.
PR doesn’t work for anyone with minor children who are too young to pass A2 though. My understanding is that it’s a requirement for PR regardless of age of applicant (unlike for citizenship).
Yes, it’s hard for young kids to acquire GV PR themselves.
But in the recent Prime Legal webinar, they said that according to AIMA, if the main applicant has GV PR, their dependents can acquire/renew derivative GV status exactly the same as if the main applicant were still on GV. (Note this stops being true once the main applicant becomes a citizen)
On the flip side, this implies that the most effective way for PSD to protect its right flank is to take immediate, extremely tough action on immigration.
My Portuguese friends who watch politics were saying similar early this year, back when the AD was campaigning to be reelected. If they can get a big chunk of “the immigration problem” off the table then Chega loses most of its oxygen.
Hence why the AD seems so hell-bent on getting these changes to the Immigration and Nationality Laws rammed through.
Yes, and that’s what was happening before the summer recess. But that train hit some leaves on the track since the Court ruling and returned Foreigners Law draft.
So now the PSD cannot take a super tough action without bypassing the Presidents veto, while for less-than-super tough actions (e.g. moderated Foreigners Law) they’d need Chega’s support on which the latter are not so keen.
“Extreme” action also has downsides for PSD. They’re a centre-right party with a moderate base and business backers. They don’t want to risk EU funds, and they don’t want to legitimise Chega’s maximalist demands. I think what they are trying to do is reframe immigration as a question of competent, efficient government (lol), not a civilisational crisis.
Yes, but I think it’s more a balancing act now rather than hell-bent. Show momentum to blunt Chega’s growth, avoid extremes to maintain the AD brand, buy time with hearings to avoid a legal mess etc
but I’ve known/advised a few and (sadly) know how they think.