What's the potential impact of the 2025 Portuguese election on the Golden Visa program and pathway to citizenship?

Every time I see something like this I feel like Bill Bixby in the Incredible Hulk. “Don’t make me angry. You wouldn’t like me when I’m angry.”

What a load of absolute rubbish. Naked partisanship and politicking at its finest.

The judges are already busy reviewing the law as referred to them by PS, so we don’t have any time other than ‘asap’. The President is not expected to make any decision at this point.

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Well, I feel dumb then. I thought the state of play was that the PS had referred it to the TC, and we were waiting on the President of the Republic to decide if he also would make a referral. According to Publico, the PS referral did specifically call out the Miranda opinion and the lack of grandfathering, but, for the obvious reason, didn’t advocate the golden visa investors’ specific case. One of the many things I don’t know is whether the TC’s review is limited to what’s called out in the referral or if they can identify other issues on their own. If the thing is fully before the TC, then I think it is already to late to do anything effective. And, btw, thank you, Tommy. Your posts on this website have been invaluable to me over these many years.

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This is true. It could very well be that you can manage to be issued a NISS in Portugal nonetheless, and still apply the totalization agreement. But this is just speculation on my part.

If the Publico article here fairly captures the government’s arguments, I can’t imagine any lawyer would find them persuasive. They don’t really even take on the substance of the PS referral. They just question the PS’s motives and make some “if they can do it, we can do it” type arguments. If this is what the government spent 10k euros on, they should get their money back.

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  1. The President already stated that he would not take any action now. It was in the news somewhere last week or so. So only the PS referral is currently at play.
  2. I personally do not know the TC methodology well enough to say how much room they have to deviate from the exact text of the referral. So assuming the worst case, they would not consider anything GV-related as this was not called out by PS.
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While employment income is usually liable for tax to the country where you’re tax resident (have unlimited tax liability) or perform the work, director fees are often treated differently in tax treaties—at least the ones following the OECD convention which assigns taxing rights to the country the company is established in. I haven’t looked into it, but I assume that’s the case for most of Portugal’s treaties as well.

I think Portuguese social security payments are also charged by default unless regulated differently by a totalization agreement or similar.

Still, I’m not sure whether this would make you qualify for a NISS in practice. It may very well be. If someone happens to be a non-resident that’s on the board of a PT company, I’d say give it a try and report back.

Separately, I am not sure whether someone without a Portuguese residential address would actually be issued an EHIC, even if they have a NISS. Again something worth testing for someone in this situation and reporting back.

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There is nothing specific to GV in the proposed law

We’re not special in their eyes compared to someone who actually lives in Portugal full-time, spends money there, pays VAT, and contributes through other taxes.

Does the TC have to opine on all the questions submitted to it? If it finds the law is unconstitutional for reason #1, does it have to opine on reason #2? In the US system, it doesn’t, but then in the US system there is nothing like advisory opinions.

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The relationship between a NISS and an EHIC relates to health care paid for through the employment; government employees pay 2-3% of their income for health care. Either the utente or NISS would get you there.

Yes, they do issue an opinion on each question.

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That said, they are looking at an existential crisis and the end of their livelihood, so desperate measures and over-optimistic outlooks are to be expected. Caveat emptor and all that.

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I have lost faith that they will actually honor their promises. Honestly, it feels like the program clearly nearing its end and the Portuguese government and the immigration industry are coordinating a last minute effort to lure as many applicants as possible into this expensive, never ending circus. It feels less like a pathway to residency and more like a system designed to keep us in limbo while extracting fees. I genuinely don’t see any good outcome from this new law. the whole thing feels like a closing-down sale where the customers are the ones losing out.

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In all honesty, this seems like a Hail Mary pass on the part of PSD and CDS. I suppose we’ll see what the Court thinks about it.

Nationality means citizenship applications, as opposed to visas, right? Does AIMA also process those or is it IRN?

And so what if the motivation was political differences? Thad the right to do it because they had the votes, so they did it. Law doesn’t say that the request for review has to be done for some abstract altruistic reasons.

Like the AD pronouncements are motivated by altruistic reasons. Uh-huh.

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Let me know everyone’s thoughts. I’ve been talking to the lawyers who did the Webinar for us a few days ago. They think we have a shot at getting our specific concerns in front of the court. Basically, the thinking goes, if the Governo gets to submit a brief (not a normal thing) then anyone can. But, the brief needs to be focused on our issues and we only have a few days (until December 2, realistically) to get a brief in front of them. The grouping of 3 law firms that would submit the brief is looking to charge us E10k for their work (including associated media work). I’m not willing to pay that much by myself. But I’d be willing to contribute towards it if there are enough others willing to do so. What does everyone else think? I’m genuinely on the fence here. I do think we can make arguments that no one else has made (specifically about investment-backed expectations tying the law on foreigners and the law on nationality together and putting us to the bottom of the line for issuance of permits). But also, E10k is a lot!

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I would like to understand who the firms are, but fundamentally, I would be in. 20 folks at 500 each would get it over the finish line. Would one of the lead firms be willing to assume custodial duties for setting up an escrow account? Funds transfer from a PT bank account would be almost immediate.

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