Reading through posts, getting cold feet - is the golden visa actually a scam?

[tommigun (Tommy Gunn)]

Based on the reasoning you have shared I would agree the Portugal’s ARI looks like the best bet for EU/citizenship.

However, we also know how painfully slow and unpredictable the ARI process has been at least for the past 4-5 years.
So if you have unlimited resources of time and money I would suggest pursuing a few other options in parallel to PT, such as (based on your preferences):

• Turkey CBI, not EU but very close and culturally not very far removed, the process is super fast with transparent costs, and yes you get your second citizenship in like 6-8 months;
• EU-candidate countries, some of them have a residence permit option with no physical stay, and path to citizenship via permanent residency. By the time you may get your citizenship it might as well be in the EU already. And no investment required as such, as it is not an RBI. You’d only incur some admin costs.
• You mentioned yourself already LATAM, there are more options there than just Costa Rica, cultural feel is similar to EU (some may even argue it feels more truly European than some parts of EU these days…), and again no investment needed at all. Some countries there have a fairly short path to citizenship. Weather selection also available

[wood.collies.0j (Jack)]

I’m almost five years into this process. For what it’s worth, my main advice is set the bar very low. If you can’t afford to lose your investment with no passport to show for it, then don’t do it. If you’re ok with having to wait up to 10 years for citizenship and possibly losing all your investment in the process, then it’s worth it.
This is a high risk, high reward program. It’s still the most generous one on the table for Europe. I don’t think it is an intentional scam, but Portuguese governance is truly lackluster - slow, arbitrary, opaque. Covid exposed the flaws in an already creaking understaffed bureaucracy and they haven’t caught up on backlogs.
In every country, immigration is always a hot button issue, so the framework you apply under might not last more than a few years. Migrants are an easy target for governments to blame for their own failed policies, and there is little public sympathy for wealthy foreigners.
I can’t say whether I’d apply today, but I do think it’s a riskier bet now.

[anonymous69]

@piquant_bugs.07

the residency permit itself only gives the same access to the EU that US citizens already enjoy

Well it also includes the right to settle in Latvia.

As a hedge against having to suddenly move outside the USA, it’s better than just having tourist access (which as you say, comes free with a US passport)

[jb4422 (Jeff B)]

You didn’t answer as to whether other locales would serve your needs; you expressed a preference for the EU. Not the same thing. Argentina can have really nice weather. Or Uruguay. Or Turkey for that matter. I actually regret not having made it to Buenos Aires to poke around or doing the Turkey CBI while it was cheap.

One thing I’m noticing here is that you’re talking about a Plan-B/Plan-C without a ton of intent of going there anytime soon or otherwise really being part of the place - more of a “bolthole” versus “second home”. If that’s the case, then… do you care where it is, besides “elsewhere”? In fact, somewhere like Dubai or Singapore that is more explicitly multinational and business-transactional may be better - they’re less likely to care that you’re an American who’s running, so to speak, whereas a culture such as Portugal may actually come to resent this idea that they are your “Plan B” (for example).

I might also note that the weather in the Caribbean CBI countries is not terrible either.

The EU might fall apart. That’s a real risk. Great, so now you don’t have an EU passport, you have a Portuguese passport. Is that ok?

Another consideration. Let’s say you have this passport. Great, now you decide you gotta go. You get off the plane. NOW what? Where are you gonna live? A hotel? You’re assuming they aren’t full and that the hoteliers don’t decide to gun for you. Lease a place? You’re assuming there will be places, and that people will want to lease to you. What are your banking relationships? Are you sure anyone’s gonna open a bank account for you even? Banking relationships can get Real Widgy Real Fast, and the rest of the world Does Not Work The Same(Itm). What about friends and relationships? Or knowing the language? Or how anything works? Don’t forget to consider that probably a lot of other people are going to be making the same choice around the same time and activating their Plan B…and discovering all the things they didn’t think about ahead of time and rushing to fill in the blanks…and probably finding that doors are going to be slamming shut in their face.

If you really mean to do this, you really should be thinking all this kind of thing through. It’s easy to think “yeah I’ll figure it out later”. It’s just like the residency itself though - when it comes time that you need it, it might be too late to “figure it out later”.

As to a passport - do you NEED a EU passport? Or just another passport? What about an EU residency and a Caribbean CBI? You have a travel document if you need it, and somewhere to live. They don’t have to be the same thing. There’s the old rule - live in one country, be a citizen of another, bank in a third.

I am not suggesting any one particular course of action. However this is what I mean, and what Tommi was also getting at, in terms of really dissecting what it is you want and need down into detail, and thinking it through.

[jb4422 (Jeff B)]

@piquant_bugs.07

the residency permit itself only gives the same access to the EU that US citizens already enjoy.

… for now.

[edandmegan (Ed M)]

You’ve gotten some great answers and been given a lot to think about. I can add this: it will be difficult to find a better alternative that offers you citizenship at 7+ years with a minimal “in-person” residency requirement. As you clearly have noted, this isn’t perfect and a lot can go - and has gone - wrong. But if you are willing and able to gamble 500K euros plus a lot of time and effort and frustration, then I still think the odds are you’ll ultimately get what you want – just not in the time frame you hope for. Just keep that in the forefront of your mind if you decide to take the plunge.

[hello_there (OGB)]

I think some of these critiques are fair, but some seem to be based on some faulty assumptions - including that if I didn’t explicitly mention something here, I must never have thought of it. I’m still unsure about the Portugal visa, but in the interest of elaborating/defending myself:

Just because I’m describing things in terms of Plan B/C/etc, still deciding between available destinations, and can’t go immediately doesn’t mean I don’t care where I end up, nor that I wouldn’t make every effort to learn the language and treat it as a real home. And just because I’m describing it as a backup plan doesn’t mean it’s a situation where, as you say, “now you decide you gotta go. You get off the plane.”

The scenario I’m trying to plan for is something like Venezuela, Russia, or Hungary have already been through. It’s not some dumb action movie where the jackbooted thugs are at the door, it’s a multi-year decline in safety and living standards, an increase in petty corruption, painfully restricted thought and expression, and the knowledge that, even if you do everything right, the jackbooted thugs could crash through the door, or some local party official could force you to sell your house to him, or your kid could go to a protest and disappear forever, or any number of other awful things that happen in countries without rule of law.

But in any case, that’s several years to figure out banking and housing and the other things you mentioned. And like, even in a real emergency…banking can be tough, but I can and have found temporary living arrangements on less than a week’s notice in multiple foreign countries. Hotels, hostels, pubs, friends of friends’ couches, one cash sublet…while I imagine there are hoteliers somewhere who would, as you say, “gun for me,” I don’t think that’s the most pressing concern. We’re talking about bringing a backpack from an airport to a hotel, not dragging a paper bag full of cash through West Baltimore.

As far as the locations you mentioned:
Argentina is on the shortlist. I haven’t looked into Uruguay - but will, thanks for that. Turkey…I mean, the whole point here is to avoid authoritarians. Dubai is a hard no.

And you’re right, I don’t specifically need a Portuguese/EU passport. I started this thread to ask folks about it because:

• Residency in months and a passport in 7 years for a mediocre €500K investment and ~$60K in legal/admin/travel fees seemed a great deal.
• Residency in maybe 4 years, passport maybe in 10-15, maybe never, for a mediocre €500K investment, $200K+ in legal/admin/travel fees, and constant moving goalposts…there might be better ways to feel safe.

Your point about the possibility of travel docs, citizenship, and housing being in different countries is well taken, and probably what I’ll be looking into next.

[hello_there (OGB)]

Thanks for this - solid summary of the discussion. I certainly will keep it at the forefront of my mind if I go for it. For now…well, I guess I’ll keep it in the forefront of my mind while I continue hemming and hawing and writing essays to myself in my notes app.

[garrett]

@jb4422 Great post, well said

As for OP, I’m pretty optimistic.

Yes timelines suck, fees are high, uncertainty abounds, and generally Portugal’s government is incompetent, but it’s, as noted, still the best option for RBI and eventually citizenship available in the EU. You need to be ok with uncertainty and don’t believe anything anyone tells you, including your lawyer, when it comes to timelines.

Argentina would’ve been on my short list, really hope they turn it around, I can’t say I like everything about Milei but at least he’s no Peronist and the economy reflects that I think. And only 2 years to citizenship! I’m considering trying to convince the wife to do that next haha

[Hippopotamousse]

Great thread, everyone, and thanks to OP for initiating. A few points to consider:

1. You mentioned the preference for obtaining a passport rather than a permanent residence in case of a US slide into authoritarianism. With Portugal, the time to permanent residence is 5 years plus an undefined processing time, and the minimum time to passport is 7 years (counting the 2-year practical minimum processing time), with 8-9 years more likely given current backlogs even if the new government doesn’t lengthen the required residence period. If you are significantly concerned about the US deterioration happening within the next 5-7 years and would like to have security and flexibility in that case, then PT isn’t likely to meet your needs (until your citizenship or PR, you’d be living in PT without a residence card or on an expired card half the time) and it would be better to pursue a more expedient program somewhere else.

@wood.collies.0j

This is a high risk, high reward program.

2. Jack and I don’t often agree , but this is an excellent way to phrase it. To make a financial markets analogy, Portugal Golden Visa is a call option. If things go your way, you hit the jackpot — you get a top-tier citizenship without needing to upend your life in the meantime, and permanent rights to live anywhere in the EU. But the risk either doesn’t happen or takes 10+ years is significant. If you can live with your backup plan also being a roulette bet on black, then you might be able to accept this.

The reason many of us on this forum express such distress is that when we invested, Portugal Golden Visa appeared to be low-risk, low-chaos, and that just isn’t how it turned out.

3. Turkey isn’t perfect, but it doesn’t belong in the same category as Venezuela or Russia in terms of either authoritarianism or chaos. Also, unlike the US or other Western countries where the situation appears unstable and the floor is unknown, Turkey’s political situation appears fairly stable, and if any change does occur, the most powerful rival party to the current government is EU-friendly and pro-democracy, so the potential for change would more likely be to the upside.

The time from investment to citizenship took 15 months for me, and I just received my TR passport this month. It’s already proving useful as at least one country in Asia in which I’m looking to obtain residence has implemented additional scrutiny on US citizens obtaining residence permits there in retaliation for recent policy moves.

The passport also has visa-free access to nearly all of Latin America, so even if you end up wanting to settle in Latin America rather than TR, you could use the TR passport to enter freely and later apply for your visas rather than your US passport, in case in the future for any reason it would be preferable to distance yourself from the US while abroad.

And if Turkey specifically isn’t your place, the EU-candidate countries as mentioned by Tommy may be suitable. I’m considering those myself as a backup to Portugal.

[hello_there (OGB)]

If you are significantly concerned about the US deterioration happening within the next 5-7 years and would like to have security and flexibility in that case, then PT isn’t likely to meet your needs.

To make a financial markets analogy, Portugal Golden Visa is a call option […] If you can live with your backup plan also being a roulette bet on black, then you might be able to accept this.

Thank you (and Jack) for this. I think you nailed it. I’m trying to engineer a solution for 2-5 years from now, and I’m working with enough resources to risk €500K being a mediocre investment, but not enough to bet €500K on black. (In other words, it won’t dramatically change my life to make the investment for 7 years; would be a bummer of an opportunity cost to do it for 12 years with nothing to show for it).

Re: Turkey…two thoughts.

First, I admit I’m no expert, but I’d understood Turkey to be in a similar place to Hungary: certainly not Venezuela, but sliding ever further from rule of law toward authoritarianism. It’s not a binary - there’s a lot of room between like, Hungary and North Korea, and every place is different - but I saw the arrest of the leading opposition candidate in March (around when I started the process of opening a Portuguese bank account) as reason enough to keep Turkey off my authoritarian-insurance list.

Second…I’m not sure why it took multiple people saying it, but I think I’m finally understanding where one of my big misunderstandings has been. I’d been thinking of it like, “ok. If home becomes bad, I will need a new home. Home = citizenship = passport, so new home requires new citizenship (or at least a path thereto) and new citizenship requires treating new country as home.”

But from reading posts here, I’m realizing that a lot of people see home as where you live, and citizenship as travel documents with maybe some taxes attached, and no particular reason they have to be the same. Embarrassed it didn’t click with me before. Sometimes it’s hard to recognize your own assumptions.

But seeing it that way leads to a wider range of plausible options. Mine, I think, will be spending a year or two getting my Spanish from halting to functional, socking away some emergency funds into non-US accounts, preparing documents, and keeping tabs on the situation at home as well as any changes in governance and residency pathways in a few different countries (Uruguay among them), so that if/when my family agrees it’s time, we can get moving quickly. Ideally we never have to, or if we do, it’s not so obviously catastrophic that every exit lane is clogged, but time will tell.

(I think this is also part of where I misunderstood Jeff above…possibly he saw citizenship, residency, banking, etc as obviously separate concerns, and was trying to warn me to at least consider each of them, whereas I assumed they were implicitly connected, and couldn’t understand how anyone would think I’d plan to permanently relocate without figuring out how to rent shelter, set up a bank account, or learn the language.)

[tommigun (Tommy Gunn)]

@hello_there

people see home as where you live, and citizenship as travel documents with maybe some taxes attached, and no particular reason they have to be the same.

Correct, they absolutely don’t have to be the same, and furthermore sometimes it would be advantageous to be a legal resident but not a citizen as the latter exposes one to all sorts of obligations, whether formal such as a mandatory military service or unwritten (eg that’s where your concerns of authoritarianism may come to surface as a dual citizen would be fully subject to the laws of his ‘new country’ while in it’s territory, and not be protected at all by his ‘native country’ anymore, while a resident obviously would).

[wood.collies.0j (Jack)]

@Hippopotamousse

Jack and I don’t often agree , but this is an excellent way to phrase it.

@Hippopotamousse I promise I won’t screenshot this and repost it next time you tell me I’m wrong

I’m probably far more pessimistic (or perhaps realistic) than our history of disagreements might suggest. One of the reasons I’m never quite as riled up about how difficult this has been is that I’ve always seen the program as a high risk bet, never a done deal. I understood my investment as the sunk cost of a passport with close to zero residency requirements. I’ve had very low expectations of getting my money out, set the probability of citizenship at 50/50, and ignored the scammy firms making it all sound easy. I’ve already immigrated once in my life so was prepared for the political turmoil, callous bureaucracy and routine humiliations. Plus I think I was lucky to find good lawyers who have never overpromised. The path to zen starts with low expectations

[portugalwanderer (Terrence Biggs)]

@tommigun

Expecting some kind of ‘integration’ as a first-generation fully matured adult human immigrant is a totally hopeless idea,

Of course, you are correct. I didn’t intend my words in a literal sense, such that I expect the town to show up at my naturalization ceremony and cheer for me. I meant it more aspirational. If I am going to learn the language and live somewhere part-time, I want to feel some connection, even if it’s small. Maybe that is just understanding a bit of the history or volunteering at the food pantry to meet people and understand how they think. But that’s just me and how I operate. I understand some people are more transactional and to each their own.

However, I do believe that if someone seeks citizenship in a country they have certain implied obligations. That doesn’t mean changing who you are or changing your religion to match the country, but I think it should include showing respect and some amount of deference to the country’s culture and history. And to do that, you need to first understand the country’s history and culture. Again, this is just my opinion. To each their own.

[tommigun (Tommy Gunn)]

Yes, I completely agree as well, it’s just I don’t expect anything in return from the receiving country, no matter how hard I try to ‘integrate’.
If it happens that a country is more accepting and positive to me as the newcomer - great.
But my base expectation is zero acceptance on their part if not hostility, which is totally natural.

[Hippopotamousse]

This perspective is understandable. Because I previously lived and spent time in countries with authoritarian characteristics, I’m perhaps less sensitive to stable semi-authoritarian governance than the average citizen of Western democratic countries.

On the flip side, I have a lower tolerance for chaos or violent crime, so much of LatAm is less appealing to me. People often say that “those murders / kidnappings only happen in certain areas”, to which I reply that I much prefer countries where they aren’t happening in any area with such frequency.

But to each their own — much of choosing a country for citizenship, a CBI program, or a residence is understanding yourself and which problems you are able to accept versus reject.

If you can accept LatAm’s flaws, it’s probably a much more convenient option.

[hello_there (OGB)]

I’m perhaps less sensitive to stable semi-authoritarian governance than the average citizen of Western democratic countries. […] On the flip side, I have a lower tolerance for chaos or violent crime, so much of LatAm is less appealing to me.

Interesting to read this, because I guess I’m on the opposite end of the bell curve.

Admittedly all this is location dependent and there are for sure many, many worse places than where I’ve been, but, having experienced both small-town police corruption and a few attempted muggings (thankfully only attempted, thanks to quick feet in the first case and good mental mapping in the second), I’ve found that while the threat of violent crime is terrifying in the moment, I’m still able to focus my worry toward limited vectors - certain areas, as you say, or a specific person’s behavior, or that weird sixth sense you pick up from living in/near such places that says “I don’t know why, but I should take the other street home tonight.”

But I’ve always found unnaccountable and erratic authority, where the source of the danger is indirect and bureaucratic and the remedies kafkaesque, gives me a less acute but far more pervasive sense of unease.

And yep, fully a personal thing. But another distinction I didn’t think to make or know how to explain until interacting with you and the folks in this thread, so thank you again.

[jb4422 (Jeff B)]

@hello_there

(I think this is also part of where I misunderstood Jeff above…possibly he saw citizenship, residency, banking, etc as obviously separate concerns, and was trying to warn me to at least consider each of them, whereas I assumed they were implicitly connected, and couldn’t understand how anyone would think I’d plan to permanently relocate without figuring out how to rent shelter, set up a bank account, or learn the language.)

bingo. I suppose in fairness this is the sort of thing that’s really obvious to me but isn’t to most people, especially when they’re coming in cold-start. And I am suffering from some cognitive decline as of late due to exhaustion from previous employment that is impacting the quality of my written thought. Anyway.

@jb4422

There’s the old rule - live in one country, be a citizen of another, bank in a third.

I think this came from Harry Browne originally. “How I Found Freedom In An Unfree World” was kind of a seminal book for the entire sovereign-man movement. I have come to dislike and disagree with a number of his attitudes towards people and society and I don’t recommend them as morally or emotionally healthy, but his approaches to how to structure your life to have more “operational freedom” (for lack of a better phrase) were, I think, revolutionary.

Not only do you want to isolate out and consider each, you want to develop a plan now and start taking steps, because you’re going to find when SHTF, these things are likely going to be much harder to deal with, if perhaps impossible. (Banking especially. You need a home - so does your money.) And the solution to one aspect need not necessarily be related to the solution to the other aspects. It might make sense - or it might not.

As a trivial example, consider cell service. Why assume you need a PT SIM? Why not have a global SIM now with a number in yet another country? Or three? Let’s suppose you have to move hurriedly. Do you really want to be dinking around with your cell phone - a staple of modern life - in the middle of it? Or would you rather just press the “switch SIM” button in your phone when you get off the (insert mode of transport) so you can deal with the other aspects you hadn’t been able to think about?

Now, I am simply pointing at all of this. You may decide “yeah I can deal with the cell phone then”. I pass no judgment on your choice - it isn’t my place. But you’ve thought about it.

[Hippopotamousse]

@hello_there

unnaccountable and erratic authority, where the source of the danger is indirect and bureaucratic and the remedies kafkaesque

FWIW, I’ve lived in seven countries and spent extensive time in two others so far. Of those nine, the US (post 9/11) is the worst of the bunch on this metric… law enforcement is terrifyingly unaccountable; many of the criminal laws are unintuitive or worse, designed to entrap; and the “civil liberties” Americans supposedly enjoy are full of holes. The only countries that incarcerate a higher percentage of their people than the US are totalitarian Turkmenistan, communist Cuba, genocide-recovering Rwanda, and [comment withheld] El Salvador. Big scary authoritarian People’s Republic of China, with four times the population, has fewer total prisoners than the US.

Yes, I’ve probably enjoyed a foreigner’s / outsider’s privilege exempting me from the attention of local authorities in many of the countries in which I’ve spent time, but this privilege is not even granted to guests in the US.

If and when you finally make your move and settle into your new place, you may find a sense of relief, as I do every time my plane arrives at my home airport after leaving the US.

[jb4422 (Jeff B)]

@hello_there

I’m perhaps less sensitive to stable semi-authoritarian governance than the average citizen of Western democratic countries. […] On the flip side, I have a lower tolerance for chaos or violent crime, so much of LatAm is less appealing to me.

Interesting to read this, because I guess I’m on the opposite end of the bell curve.

There is an interesting quote from Heinlein on this topic:

“Friday, a well run tyranny is a better base for my work than is any form of free government. But a well-run tyranny is almost as scarce as an efficient democracy.”

(Another book I recommend on this overall topic - again, it’s perspective, even if you don’t agree with the views espoused.)

As you say, this is all a matter of taste and what you are comfortable with. However, I suspect the world is heading to a point where one is going to end up having to choose between sub-par choices based on tactical decisions versus ideals.