Of course it’s not an efficient frontier and of course 20% returns are not guaranteed. My point is not about that. But it is a good hedge for Us investors right now and it is good returns so far, and it is an open fund so you are not getting your money locked in into something where you are not making any money right now.
That said - I am upset about my 1.6% management fee but it could have been much much worse.
This is an excellent framework to consider the possible outcomes. Would like to add a few edits.
I think the 2nd probability cascades into the 3rd probability. Because the longer you wait the more changes of government there’ll be so the more chances for the law to be changed.
That’s exactly why a 5 year residency-to-citizenship program is more risky in the first place than a direct citizenship by investment program.
Assuming evenly distributed risks, a 10 year residency-to-citizenship program is twice as risky as a 5 year one.
Yes, especially in a democratic system with frequent changes of government such as PT, the chance that a new government will come along and make a mess of everything before you can complete your process increases significantly as the number of years to completion increase.
I was pleased you didn’t mention North Korea.
When Pyongyang becomes an international airline hub I’ll start worrying about it
There are two separate threads here now, and they are both really interesting in their way, and it might be interesting @tkrunning to maybe actually split them out, though the crime-thread may be finished for now too. I don’t know.
Though I don’t have the same experiences, I’d have to agree with @richn4:
I am again reminded of Heinlein and “Friday” and the attributes of tyrannies versus democracies, and there is probably at least some correlation; whether there is a causation or not however is perhaps more debateable. But perspective matters, especially as a foreigner.
For instance, I just saw something about someone who recently visited Venezuela. Supposedly a failed state of chaos and capriciousness and all that - but if you are in certain parts and towns, as a foreigner, it’s Just Fine. There’s good food, stores are stocked, etc. You can see the line between good and bad, and apparently it’s as stark as 8 Mile Road in Detroit (drive it sometime, it’s shocking), but well. You just learn the local rules and play nice.
Another example is Nicaragua. We hear all this stuff. However, a friend of mine has a place down in the southwest corner, where Bill Bonner and others first started Rancho Santana in like the 80s and that’s evolved into a pretty sizable enclave of foreigners with money - enough that the roads are all good and there’s even a hospital and it’s perfectly safe. Ortega leaves it alone because he needs the hard currency and he’s not an idiot, and none of the crap affects them at all. Of course there is that hovering risk that he does go postal, and you have to live with that. But if you’re a smart nimble foreigner, you simply learn to cope and have a plan-B handy (ex. lots of cash for bribes).
But life in the US is showing us that democracies/republics can become capricious too. And to get by you have to learn the local rules and be willing to bow to them… and whether you can is pretty dependent on who you are and what you believe.
(As an aside, another point on Plan-Bs - if you are really worried about having a plan B… again, banking. As we have seen lately, it’s pretty easy for a person to get “un-banked” in the US, and that can be crippling if one feels a need to leave quickly. Having a credit card issued by a bank in a neutral country might well prove to be handy. But that’s the sort of planning you HAVE to have established WAY in advance… and cash has a utility all its own too. I personally keep 5 figures of cash in various currencies US and non-US in my safe at home as well as some physical gold/silver.)
I would not place too much reliance on traditional bank accounts or physical cash/metals. E.g. I happen to have a bank account in a certain country and I even receive income to it, but there is no way of transferring that income out of the country via traditional methods. I cannot even exchange the local currency to anything via those local banks.
So I had to swallow the orange pill one day and that solved the problem. At least for now, until the next problem may come along…
I’m in search of a benign dictatorship, preferably close to a large body of water, within a temperate zone, with very little corruption or crime. Any suggestions?
Hungary? I believe they have a sizeable lake 
Singapore, undoubtedly.
nope, not my baliwick.
It’s best not to place too much reliance on anything at all. 
Capital controls, confiscation, border searches, taxation, theft… the only way around it is diversification, at least to the extent I can tell.
I started reading “When Money Dies” by Adam Ferguson. After a few chapters, I’m not entirely sure I can bring myself to continue, let alone to finish it.
I fully agree, the only downside is ever-increasing overhead with every new ‘diversification’ step, i.e. new banks, new RE agents, lawyers, accountants, managers etc. to deal with. After a certain point the admin consumes the ‘spare time’ completely 
Hi there, I’m exactly where you are in the process and I am choosing to continue on.My goal is to live in the EU and have citizenship in possibly 10 years or so. Given my limitations on how much time I can spend abroad each year this is what I believe to be my best chance. This is a calculated risk that I’m willing to take, and because I have made that decision and committed to it, I am choosing not to really delve much deeper into reading up on those who have decided otherwise or discourage it.I don’t want to live with constant anxiety over a decision that I have pulled the trigger on. Obviously, this is a very personal decision and has a lot to do with how much risk tolerance one has financially and with uncertainty. Whatever you decide, I wish you the best and hope either way you don’t second guess yourself, Best, Melissa.
It won’t take 10 years, most likely 13-14 years when the new legislation passes through.
If your application is already underway, you’re grandfathered in under the Old five year rule. Just want people to be aware of this. So although you are getting the benefit of the old rule, you should also be aware., however, the five-year clock for residency doesn’t start until after the application is accepted, which usually takes about two years, so all in all at this time from what I’m hearing seven years is pretty much a good bet.
If your citizenship application is already underway (e.g. you already completed your 5 years, passed the language course and filed for citizenship) then you are safe yes.
If only your residency application is underway, there’s no guarantee you will be grandfathered. You might, you might not. Depends what legislation they end up passing in September.
I’ll add to this - it is similarly unclear if you’ve been approved for residency, or have your residency card, whether you are grandfathered in to the five year rule.
I’ll also wonder aloud whether if you’ve been approved before the change, whether you can claim your waiting time as part of your residency period toward citizenship because of the prior law. I have no opinion on that, just wondering.
I have to agree here with anonymous. No offense meant, but those who just filed their application last week are probably not the most reliable experts on how persistent the government might be in trying to screw over applicants. I’m pretty sure @anonymous69 has been through a few of these cycles already and has some learned knowledge.