Of course itās not an efficient frontier and of course 20% returns are not guaranteed. My point is not about that. But it is a good hedge for Us investors right now and it is good returns so far, and it is an open fund so you are not getting your money locked in into something where you are not making any money right now.
That said - I am upset about my 1.6% management fee but it could have been much much worse.
This is an excellent framework to consider the possible outcomes. Would like to add a few edits.
I think the 2nd probability cascades into the 3rd probability. Because the longer you wait the more changes of government thereāll be so the more chances for the law to be changed.
Thatās exactly why a 5 year residency-to-citizenship program is more risky in the first place than a direct citizenship by investment program.
Assuming evenly distributed risks, a 10 year residency-to-citizenship program is twice as risky as a 5 year one.
Yes, especially in a democratic system with frequent changes of government such as PT, the chance that a new government will come along and make a mess of everything before you can complete your process increases significantly as the number of years to completion increase.
I was pleased you didnāt mention North Korea.
When Pyongyang becomes an international airline hub Iāll start worrying about it
There are two separate threads here now, and they are both really interesting in their way, and it might be interesting @tkrunning to maybe actually split them out, though the crime-thread may be finished for now too. I donāt know.
Though I donāt have the same experiences, Iād have to agree with @richn4:
I am again reminded of Heinlein and āFridayā and the attributes of tyrannies versus democracies, and there is probably at least some correlation; whether there is a causation or not however is perhaps more debateable. But perspective matters, especially as a foreigner.
For instance, I just saw something about someone who recently visited Venezuela. Supposedly a failed state of chaos and capriciousness and all that - but if you are in certain parts and towns, as a foreigner, itās Just Fine. Thereās good food, stores are stocked, etc. You can see the line between good and bad, and apparently itās as stark as 8 Mile Road in Detroit (drive it sometime, itās shocking), but well. You just learn the local rules and play nice.
Another example is Nicaragua. We hear all this stuff. However, a friend of mine has a place down in the southwest corner, where Bill Bonner and others first started Rancho Santana in like the 80s and thatās evolved into a pretty sizable enclave of foreigners with money - enough that the roads are all good and thereās even a hospital and itās perfectly safe. Ortega leaves it alone because he needs the hard currency and heās not an idiot, and none of the crap affects them at all. Of course there is that hovering risk that he does go postal, and you have to live with that. But if youāre a smart nimble foreigner, you simply learn to cope and have a plan-B handy (ex. lots of cash for bribes).
But life in the US is showing us that democracies/republics can become capricious too. And to get by you have to learn the local rules and be willing to bow to themā¦ and whether you can is pretty dependent on who you are and what you believe.
(As an aside, another point on Plan-Bs - if you are really worried about having a plan Bā¦ again, banking. As we have seen lately, itās pretty easy for a person to get āun-bankedā in the US, and that can be crippling if one feels a need to leave quickly. Having a credit card issued by a bank in a neutral country might well prove to be handy. But thatās the sort of planning you HAVE to have established WAY in advanceā¦ and cash has a utility all its own too. I personally keep 5 figures of cash in various currencies US and non-US in my safe at home as well as some physical gold/silver.)
I would not place too much reliance on traditional bank accounts or physical cash/metals. E.g. I happen to have a bank account in a certain country and I even receive income to it, but there is no way of transferring that income out of the country via traditional methods. I cannot even exchange the local currency to anything via those local banks.
So I had to swallow the orange pill one day and that solved the problem. At least for now, until the next problem may come alongā¦
Iām in search of a benign dictatorship, preferably close to a large body of water, within a temperate zone, with very little corruption or crime. Any suggestions?
Hungary? I believe they have a sizeable lake 
Singapore, undoubtedly.