Reading through posts, getting cold feet - is the golden visa actually a scam?

Of course it’s not an efficient frontier and of course 20% returns are not guaranteed. My point is not about that. But it is a good hedge for Us investors right now and it is good returns so far, and it is an open fund so you are not getting your money locked in into something where you are not making any money right now.

That said - I am upset about my 1.6% management fee but it could have been much much worse.

This is an excellent framework to consider the possible outcomes. Would like to add a few edits.

  • 20% probability one could obtain passport in 5+3=8 years without becoming a tax resident;
  • 40% probability it takes a few years longer, but without having to become a tax resident. This includes both the possibility that the official number of years of official residence before applying for citizenship will be increased, and the possibility that the current government will change the either the law or the interpretation/regulation of the now-five year official residence period to start from first card, not first application.
  • 30% probability that the Nationality Law changes, such that it takes a few years of tax residency. So for someone who’s still >10 years from retirement or with aging parents/older school-age children who don’t want to move to Portugal, this means renewing PT GV over and over until making the physical move. Then there are two scenarios for me:
  • scenario 1: PT tax does not make sense for me to move, ever. Then I cut losses and run.
  • scenario 2: Some form of NHR1.x comes back, so that my foreign incomes are spared. Then I’ll probably keep renewing my PT GV if it is still of value to me. But given all the renewal difficulties, it will be very annoying if I have to keep renewing for 20 years until I can actually move. I might just get annoyed into giving it up, if my other plan Bs work out better.
  • scenario 3: even if some form of NHR1.x comes back, the new law requires 183+ day physical presence for all the 5-10 official years of residence, in which case the 8-13 year clock for ARI/GV investors starts anew the moment they move to PT. Then I cut losses and run.
  • 10% probability other events will happen.
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I think the 2nd probability cascades into the 3rd probability. Because the longer you wait the more changes of government there’ll be so the more chances for the law to be changed.

That’s exactly why a 5 year residency-to-citizenship program is more risky in the first place than a direct citizenship by investment program.

Assuming evenly distributed risks, a 10 year residency-to-citizenship program is twice as risky as a 5 year one.

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Yes, especially in a democratic system with frequent changes of government such as PT, the chance that a new government will come along and make a mess of everything before you can complete your process increases significantly as the number of years to completion increase.

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I was pleased you didn’t mention North Korea.

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When Pyongyang becomes an international airline hub I’ll start worrying about it

There are two separate threads here now, and they are both really interesting in their way, and it might be interesting @tkrunning to maybe actually split them out, though the crime-thread may be finished for now too. I don’t know.

Though I don’t have the same experiences, I’d have to agree with @richn4:

I am again reminded of Heinlein and ā€œFridayā€ and the attributes of tyrannies versus democracies, and there is probably at least some correlation; whether there is a causation or not however is perhaps more debateable. But perspective matters, especially as a foreigner.

For instance, I just saw something about someone who recently visited Venezuela. Supposedly a failed state of chaos and capriciousness and all that - but if you are in certain parts and towns, as a foreigner, it’s Just Fine. There’s good food, stores are stocked, etc. You can see the line between good and bad, and apparently it’s as stark as 8 Mile Road in Detroit (drive it sometime, it’s shocking), but well. You just learn the local rules and play nice.

Another example is Nicaragua. We hear all this stuff. However, a friend of mine has a place down in the southwest corner, where Bill Bonner and others first started Rancho Santana in like the 80s and that’s evolved into a pretty sizable enclave of foreigners with money - enough that the roads are all good and there’s even a hospital and it’s perfectly safe. Ortega leaves it alone because he needs the hard currency and he’s not an idiot, and none of the crap affects them at all. Of course there is that hovering risk that he does go postal, and you have to live with that. But if you’re a smart nimble foreigner, you simply learn to cope and have a plan-B handy (ex. lots of cash for bribes).

But life in the US is showing us that democracies/republics can become capricious too. And to get by you have to learn the local rules and be willing to bow to them… and whether you can is pretty dependent on who you are and what you believe.

(As an aside, another point on Plan-Bs - if you are really worried about having a plan B… again, banking. As we have seen lately, it’s pretty easy for a person to get ā€œun-bankedā€ in the US, and that can be crippling if one feels a need to leave quickly. Having a credit card issued by a bank in a neutral country might well prove to be handy. But that’s the sort of planning you HAVE to have established WAY in advance… and cash has a utility all its own too. I personally keep 5 figures of cash in various currencies US and non-US in my safe at home as well as some physical gold/silver.)

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I would not place too much reliance on traditional bank accounts or physical cash/metals. E.g. I happen to have a bank account in a certain country and I even receive income to it, but there is no way of transferring that income out of the country via traditional methods. I cannot even exchange the local currency to anything via those local banks.
So I had to swallow the orange pill one day and that solved the problem. At least for now, until the next problem may come along…

I’m in search of a benign dictatorship, preferably close to a large body of water, within a temperate zone, with very little corruption or crime. Any suggestions?

Hungary? I believe they have a sizeable lake :grin:

Singapore, undoubtedly.

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nope, not my baliwick.

It’s best not to place too much reliance on anything at all. :slight_smile: Capital controls, confiscation, border searches, taxation, theft… the only way around it is diversification, at least to the extent I can tell.

I started reading ā€œWhen Money Diesā€ by Adam Ferguson. After a few chapters, I’m not entirely sure I can bring myself to continue, let alone to finish it.

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I fully agree, the only downside is ever-increasing overhead with every new ā€˜diversification’ step, i.e. new banks, new RE agents, lawyers, accountants, managers etc. to deal with. After a certain point the admin consumes the ā€˜spare time’ completely :man_facepalming: :grin:

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