Two hopefully simple questions, because it is a bit of an overload in here.
First, if I were to start the GV process now from scratch, what is a realistic timeline to 1. first residency card and 2. passport?
Second, can the renewals of cards (and their scheduled appointments) be relied on for the time before citizenship? Going through a long expensive process and then not even be able to use the residency cards for big gaps or have uncertainty in appointment scheduling would be a big deal for me.
I started in early 2020 and some of my dependents still do not have first cards. They have been waiting 4.5 year up to now.
Therefore, if you start now, then
to get the 1st card: expect waiting time is 5 years minimum
to complete 5 years residency and to submit the citizenship’s application: expect at least 8 years. I do not believe that the govt keeps the new law. They do not publish the regulation because they do not want that law. Soon they will update the new law and thing goes back to normal as before.
to have the citizenship’s outcome: at least 2 years.
With all numbers above, the realistic time to get the passport is 15 years. It is what it is
I am relatively new here as well, but I have been through the threads. This is my take and I might be wrong. If you apply now, you will get the residency card in 2.5/3 years from now.
There is debate on the passport. In the first scenario, you could get the passport in 7 years. 5 years from today/date of application, you would be eligible and it can take 2 years to get a passport. In the second scenario at 2.5/3 years to that time because it will be counted from the time of residency. Most people think its the first scenario but no one really knows.
I applied 2 years & 1 month ago…but the process started 2.5 years ago with bank ac opening, trn, sale/purchase agreement etc taking time. I am the primary applicant and still not even climbed the first step of pre-approval. Lost 3k in lawsuits and no response from AIMA on mail requests.
Dont take it as a jibe. My response was in good faith…dont agree to what those selling u the program say. They are the first ones to turn tail and run on the first query u raise.
I am main applicant who applied in early 2020. It took me almost 3 years to get my first card. I cannot imagine how long it is going to take for those who are about to start the journey in 2024. Maybe they will get the passport in 2044…insane!!!
My two cents. As you can tell from the message boards, the approvals are all over the place. The only thing you can count on is that this is the present experience. What the future experience will be is anyone’s guess. Could be worse, could be (slightly) better.
But that is why it is all the more important to wait till the present backlog streamlines or there is a visible effort leading to tangible results. There is absolutely no logic to applying currently. We now even have a precedent where the citizenship timeline begins not from online application or even biometric appointment but when DUC is paid.
erm… are you referring to “probably Manifestação de Interesse guy” here? He hasn’t confirmed whether he’s MI or ARI yet, but his earlier posts suggest MI… which is a very different path than GV.
The problem is: there is no “realistic timeline,” and anyone who tells you otherwise is simply lying to you and should not be entrusted with such a consequential investment and life choice.
Pre-approvals have been stalled for more than a year.
Despite making bona fide efforts to address the migration backlogs generally, the new government has not even explicitly acknowledged ARI applicants as a class and has not even confirmed whether (let alone when) AIMA will resume pre-approvals. We simply do not and cannot know a timeline.
The previous PM made ARI applicants the scapegoats for inflation and the housing crisis, despite having no grounding in reality and with no actual datapoints to substantiate that claim.
As a result , ARI applicants have become a political football that not even the new AD government wants to touch.
Personally, I don’t think “normal” processing will ever resume. I think you will have to sue at every step, hope you win, and hope AIMA (or whatever replacement agency happens to exist) feels like following the court’s order. You will also have to hope your attorneys are responsive, competent, and don’t price gouge you at every step—a combination few of us have been lucky enough to find.
If that sounds like a fulfilling and productive way to spend the next 7-15 years of your life, and you are prepared to spend the additional fees on “Hail Mary” efforts in court in a civil law jurisdiction (no binding precedent), then welcome to the abyss.
While there have been a few outliers (likely as a result of a winning lawsuit) AIMA has not resumed “regular” pre-approval processing since it took over from SEF, which was last October. That is more than a year ago. If you have contrary data points, please share your source.
I know someone who uses CCA as his lawyer, his lawyers have informed him that there were approvals in March 2024. Again, this could be dependents/new applications etc- apparently there is no way of knowing the date of application submission from the approvals on the AIMA portal. I will reach out to my lawyers (Prime Legal) to see what they say about this, if that helps.
