What's the potential impact of the 2025 Portuguese election on the Golden Visa program and pathway to citizenship?

As I understand it, there are precisely 3 TC judges to be replaced, and the main parties got stuck on not being able to agree the quota.
CH now claims that PSD agreed the 2-PSD 1-CH formula but as you said it requires 2/3 vote which means all of PSD, CH AND IL voting Yes.
I also understand this vote is secret, hence there is a speculation that a number of PSD deputies would not vote Yes for a CH judge thus failing the 2/3 majority. It is for that reason the vote had been postponed so many times as the three main parties try to find an agreement before the list of candidates goes to be voted on.
Assuming PSD keeps 2 judges, both PS and CH wants 1 for themselves.
Now CH claims PSD has promised them 1 seat. PSD does not say yes or no. IL now suggests that they would be willing to submit their own judge to resolve the impass :slight_smile: (I am guessing 1 PSD 1 IL 1 CH)
I guess it’s their price for voting in coalition with PSD/CH which they are being asked to support 2/3..

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I see you keep track too!
The mood has changed. The torrential rains of February have had a major cost. On top of that, a higher cost of energy. Painful for a relatively poor country with major problems in health care, housing, justice, and low wages.

A different President installed - one seeking consensus and inter-party commitment towards national goals, unimpressed with squabbles and defense of party interests.

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“There are bills currently being debated, and everyone knows – it’s no secret – that negotiations are taking place between the Government and Chega,” said André Ventura, noting that “the Nationality Law is clearly not being negotiated with the PS; it is being negotiated with Chega”, as is the law on repatriation."

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Maybe I’m just being dense, but what does that even mean…?

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Erm.. did you open the linked article?

I am confused. It’s clear Chega wants to ahve the criminal part in. If they had to override TC, why wait so long and just not use two third parliament majority immediately after TC and get it through. Why wait for all this? Something is not adding up.

Also why two laws: one from PSD and one from Chega?

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Because I think they want to place their people in the TC, and Council of President, and all sorts of other places before going nuclear with their 2/3rds..
See the posts above from me and @Onward

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Important timing bits to note in that 26-March article that Tommy posted above (1-April we already knew about)…

At the last conference of parliamentary leaders, it was decided that amendments to the Nationality Law can be submitted until Monday [30-March] afternoon, with the plenary session scheduled to reconsider the President of the Republic’s veto of the parliamentary decree on Wednesday [1-April].

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You think they are planning to bring the clause which applies the new law on the existing citizenship applications?

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They would like to do so.

I think these statements may be made to put pressure on the government during the last minute negotiations. If they were so close to agreement we would hear it from the government. Or had the ruling party already changed and we missed that news?

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The ruling party not changed, but rather formed a coalition with CH, with the de-facto leader of the coalition being AV since his success at the presidential elections (in contrast to PSD’s abject failure at those elections).

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CH leader is speaking like the leader of the coalition.

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Seems like the new nationality law draft has been uploaded or the AI hallucinating again?

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What have you seen?

This new Expresso article is quite relevant 2 days before the expected vote in the Assembly

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Ask the AI for a link to the uploaded draft then?

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Here is what it says.

Well I can’t click on a link in a screenshot. You’d have to click it yourself in the original answer.

ChatGPT says

Short answer: No — as of March 30, 2026, there is no new publicly released draft text beyond the 2025 proposal that got partially struck down and sent back to Parliament.

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It has even given me a list of proposed changes in the draft. This is scary that it can come up with all by itself.

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